Scenario Simulation Of Land Use Change In Fuxian Lake Basin Based On CA-Markov Model

Land use change has become a hotspot in global research.Land use change research is the study of land use type and quantity,and it is also the study of land use change model.The establishment,simulation and forecast of land use change model are the important contents of land use research.The land use change model predicts the trend of land use change in the future from quantitative and qualitative directions.The study of land use change is of great significance to ecological environment protection,urban planning and climate change.The unreasonable exploitation and utilization of land by mankind has caused natural disasters such as soil erosion,flood disaster and debris flow.It has also caused man-made disasters such as desertification,water pollution and soil pollution.With China's growing economy,social progress and rapid population growth make China's urbanization accelerating.Kunming urbanization progress continues to increase,and the economy is also increasing.At the same time,the ecological problems of the plateau lake-Fuxian Lake basin are becoming more and more prominent,and there is a significant conflict with the trend of urbanization land.Therefore,it is of great significance to study and simulate the land use change in Fuxian Lake basin.Land use sustainable development plays a role in decision-making.In this paper,the Fuxian Lake Basin is used as the research object,The spatial and temporal changes of land use and dynamic characteristics of the basin were analyzed by using ArcGIS software spatial analysis.The CA-Markov model is used to study the land use change in 2009-2015.The CA-Markov model was used to study the land use change in the basin from 2009 to 2015,and the CROSSTAB module in IDRISI software was used to analyze the actual and predicted land use status in 2015.The Kappa index was used to evaluate the spatial simulation accuracy and to simulate and forecast the land in Fuxian Lake Basin in 2018.According to the future development trend of different cities and the policy changes,three different scenarios were set up to simulate the development trend of land use in Fuxian Lake Basin in 2018,and the results were compared and evaluated.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Land use type area change.With the increase of human economic activities,the land use structure changed in Fuxian Lake Basin from 2009 to 2015,the area of forest land,the area of garden area,the area of grassland,the area of housing area,the area of road area and the area of artificial excavation increased year by year While the area of cultivated land,the area of the structure,the area of desert and exposed surface area and the area of water area decreased.(2)Analysis of dynamic change of land use type.From the perspective of the single land use type,we can see that the change of land,structure,artificial excavation,desert and exposed surface is bigger in 2009?2015,and the other types of land change are smaller and the change is the smallest.From the comprehensive land use type dynamic attitude,the 9-year comprehensive land use type dynamic degree of Fuxian Lake waters increased first and then decreased,and the land use change in Fuxian Lake Basin from 2009 to 2012 was more severe.Land use of Fuxian Lake Basin in 2012-2015 Significant reduction in the severity of the change.(3)Evaluation of simulation accuracy.Based on the present situation of land use in 2015,the Kappa index was used to evaluate the simulation accuracy in the space.The simulated Kappa index was 89.42%by using the CROSSTAB module in IDRISI software.The simulation results show that the predicted results are in good agreement with the actual situation,and the simulation results are feasible and feasible.