The Empirical Research Of Financial Early Warning In Listed Companies Based On EVA

With the development of economic globalization and fierce market competition, the establishment of a scientific and effective financial early-warning model can help businesses avoid risks and achieve sustainable development. It also provides appropriate decision-making information for investors, creditors, governments and other stakeholders.This paper chooses 82 Special Treated listed companies and 82 matching non-Special Treated listed company as the research sample in the year of 2007,2008 and 2009, use their 2005,2006 and 2007s' financial data and calculated EVA to establish financial early-warning indicator system, then use Logistic regression to establish financial early-warning model based on EVAFirst, use 2005,2006 and 2007s' financial statements to calculate EVA, In view of the research sample related to the convergence of the old and new criteria, for the data of 2007 the paper calculated EVA according to New Accounting Standard, For the data of the year 2005 and 2006, the paper calculated EVA according to Old Accounting Standards. Then combine EVA with traditional financial ratios and selected 20 variables to establish EVA-based early warning indicator system.In the empirical research process, firstly use Non-parametric method to test the significance of the sample's financial data. We found that many samples'difference level was not significant, and there are correlation and multicollinearity among them. In order to remove multicollinearity, and then use Factor Analysis to extract the common factor of variables, lastly use the factors'scores into the Logistic regression model.In this paper, three financial early-warning models were built. Model 1:Use 2007 data to early-warning 2009; Model 2:Use 2006 data to early-warning 2009; Model 3:Use 2005,2006 data to early-warning 2007,2008.Finally through the comparative analysis of the three models as well as the effect of the prediction of testing samples, the results showed that Modell has the best predictive power, Model 2 has the worst predicted power, Model 3's predicted effects is acceptable.Empirical results show that:under the old criteria system, EVA in the financial early warning can play its due value; with The establishment of the new accounting system, financial early-warning capacity of EVA has increased; EVA which were calculated and adjusted according to the accounting standard has many advantages compared with the traditional early warning indicators, the introduction EVA into financial early-warning system is scientific and effective.