The Study And The Application Of Financial Early Warning System In Oil And Gas Enterprises

With the development of the reform, the opening-up policy, and the market economy, the internal and external environments of oil and gas enterprises (hereafter will be abbreviated as OGE) have changed substantially. Especially after China's joining into WTO, OGE have faced greater risks and more uncertain factors. If the existent financial risks can't be found in time, be avoided and be worked against effectively, it certainly will trigger financial crisis, and will make enterprises get into a difficult position, even get bankrupt. Therefore, it has great realistic significance to study how OGE take precautions against and dissolve financial risks, and how to predict and warn the financial crisis. The enterprise's financial crisis is generally a gradual, accumulated, and converted process from getting birth to getting worsen. In this course, all kinds of dangerous factors will be reflected in the changes of some sensitive financial indices directly or indirectly. So, through setting up and observing the changes of some sensitive financial indices, and through establishing the financial early warning system, which is to mornitor, early warn and control the financial risks and crisis, the financial hidden trouble could be prevented and removed, and the enterprise financial system and business system could be assured in a good operation condition. However, to apply financial warning system in OGE of China has not been studied systematically at present. This thesis, for the first time, applies the financial early warning theory and method to OGE, sets up oil and gas industry-featured financial early warning system, predicts the financial crisis of domestic OGE, and reduces economic losses that caused by bankrupt. This thesis starts from the characteristics of oil and gas enterprises and financial risks they faced. Then, systematically studies all financial indices that can sensitively reflect financial risks. The financial indices include commonly used debt paying ability index, operating ability index, profitability index, developing ability index, cash flow index, and some oil and gas enterprise's specially used indexes, such as unit oil and gas operating cost, crude oil ratio of cost to price, the surplus proportion of recoverable reserves, and oil and gas exploitation ratio, etc.. Secondly, through analyzing both foreign and domestic financial warning model and consulting some experts, the thesis revises the Z score model, adds two more oil and gas enterprise used indices, crude oil ratio of cost to price and the surplus proportion of recoverable reserves, and sets up Z-score model for oil and gas enterprises financial warning. Thirdly, the fuzzy comprehensive assessment model for financial warning is set up through qualitative and quantitative consideration of the according advantages and disadvantages and through confirming the weight of the index by level-analytic approach. Finally , the thesis sets up the financial early warning system of oil and gas enterprises, which relies mainly on early warning of multi-variables and fuzzy comprehensive assessment, and also relies on single-variable warning. Subsequently, the thesis proposes warning removing and preventing countermeasures from the financial aspect. It also takes LiaoHe oil field as an example and uses the constructed financial warning system to pre-control its financial risks.