The Research About Identifying And Analysing The Schedule Risk Of Telecommunication R&D Project

As the network technology turns to syncretic and convergence, there are more and more new equipment and technology need to be used in the R&D project of telecommunication. The scope and influence of the R&D project is larger than before. Then we need more time, a lot of organization and cooperation work for the project. And the periods of the R&D project is longer. All of these bring some untraceable and uncertain risks. So that the R&D project of telecommunication goes with different kinds of risks all along, including of schedule risk, cost risk, technology risk, quality risk, management risk and etc. Any of these risks will cause the project can't be finished according to the primary schedule. So how to manage the project risks, especially the schedule risk? It's undoubtedly to be an important task in the project management of the telecommunication R&D project. As the precondition and requirement of project schedule risk management, we must enhance the important work to identify and analyse the schedule risks at first.However, the domestic telecommunication enterprises sometimes think little of the schedule risk management of the R&D project. Especially, they ignore the identification and analysis of the schedule risk during the project start-up and planning. Thereby, many R&D project have the schedule risk problem which is caused by different kinds of accident. It's impossible to deliver the product to the customer in schedule. And it may badly affect the satisfaction of customer. The project will be so much as failed because of the schedule overdue problem in the end. Why will we have this kind of problem? On the one hand, it is because of the domestic telecommunication enterprises lack of the attention to the project risk management. On the other hand, it is due to the enterprise managers or the project managers are unconversant about the theory and methods of project schedule risk management. Especially, they don't know how to use the scientific ways to identify and analyse the project schedule risks. Thus, they don't believe these ways, and they will also not use them in the schedule risk management of telecommunication R&D project.Therefore, the dissertation is concerning the the schedule risk management of telecommunication R&D project, it is started from introducing the basic knowledge and major process of the IT project risk management. The dissertation focus on the research of the methods in the schedule risk identification and analysis of the telecommunication R&D project. The brainstorming, check list and Delphi methods have been used to get the list of 6 typical schedule risks in telecommunication R&D project. And the dissertation has used the cause and effect map and the risk map methods to make the qualitative risk analysis and the quantitative risk analysis of 6 typical schedule risks in telecommunication R&D project. In addition, it is disscussed about the problem that the resource restriction and collision between different works of project may be ignored by the traditional analysis methods of the project schedule risk when there is the risk of manpower resource restriction. A new schedule risk analysis method to solve above problem, which is based on the critical chain method, is brought forward in this dissertation. And it is investigated how to use this new analysis method to improve the schedule risk management work of the telecommunication R&D project.Hope the investigation and discussion in the dissertation, which is about the methods in the schedule risk identification and analysis of the telecommunication R&D project, will be helpful to all project managers.