| China’s natural gas industry chain has entered a stage of rapid development.After a decade of rapid growth,the current growth rate of gas consumption seems to go down,there have been relatively oversupply in downstream market.Compared to the nationwide "gas famine" situation in November 2009,the current problem may be an oversupply.Whether "gas famine" or "gas oversupply" is once again embodies of industry chain risk.To avoid both frequent aversion and to make a more profound understanding of the industry chain risk and its transfer destination,we use literature research,case research and multi-dimensional analysis and other general methods for risk management to complete the risk identification.Then,we start the multi-angle risk analysics in four perspective besides risk factors,industry chain features,industry chain development stage and the industry chain structure.finally we describe the conduction process of industry chain risk.Study conclusions are as follows:The combination of fish-bone and risk logical tree is more effective in risk identification.There are four major risk factors contributes to the industry chain risk.Industry chain characteristics forms some risk factors,and these characteristics will lead to the transfer of risk among downstream users.Different stages of development have different major risk factors.In the rapid development stage,the lack of pipeline construction and gas storage,the structure of downstream market and the large number of imported long association contract will form an industry chain risk.The structure of Industry chain has a greater impact on the formation of industry chain risk.In the current structure,midstream and upstream has been operated by a big company,the cooperation of upstream market and the downstream is unreasonable,the regularity of downstream is also beyond our recognition.All above issues exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand of natural gas,and even lead to "gas famine" or "gas oversupply".Finally,from the perspective of industry chain risk conduction,Different structures have different pathways,but all can be observed through such indicators like volume,price etc.Chain risk conduction will not only cause the loss of chain of the current period,there may also occur cross-regional or cross-time risk conduction. |
