Research On Monitoring And Early-warning Mechanisms For The Scale Of The Commodity Distribution

The experience of economic growth and development in many countries indicate that economic fluctuation is a concomitant phenomenon of economic growth. Following the high inflation of the economy there must be the economic conflation, and every intense fluctuation process to some extent destroy the economy and waste the natural resources in a large scale. The same to the macro-economy, the development of commodities distribution industry also shows a phenomenon of fluctuation. Therefore, in order to avoid this situation, we should analyze the internal factors and external shocks of the fluctuation of commodities distribution industry rely on the data in history and at present, to set up the early warning system by supervising the index system to which relate the commodities distribution industry. We can predict the future economic fluctuation trends with the early warning system and applies it to the economic administration. It is of more important and significance to the development of the commodities distribution industry in China.In this paper, the author chooses the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis method for a more systematic study of the scale of the commodity distribution's monitoring and early-warning mechanisms. The author systematically analyzes the definition of the early warning system and the theories of the early warning system, especially emphases on the warning condition index. The essay also has a thorough discuss on the selection of warning sign index, and further clarified the first, the coincident and lagging indicators division standards. Based on this, the sign index of the monitoring and early-warning system has been identified at last.On this basis, using the principal component analysis method, the author determined the integrated warning indicators for the monitoring and early-warning system to scale of the commodity distribution .At the same time, the paper put a in-depth analysis on the definition of the boundaries and, in conjunction with the lights warning system to complete the entire preliminary model construction.Finally, the paper utilizes the monitoring and early-warning model to analyze the development of commodities circulation in 15 years. And the author has pointed out some preliminary ideas to build the scale commodity circulation of China. Also she has pointed out the system, whether in theory or in application, still exist some of the problems which will be addressed in future.