Monitoring And Early Warning Technology Research On The Shandong Province Financial Prosperity

The important characteristic of world is the key role of finance in economicdevelopment. With the development of globalization, market and the regionalizationof economic, the development of the financial industry is extremely importantconcern. Evolving of financial markets, financial institutions, financial personnel,financial innovation, financial globalization and financial ecological environment, thedevelopment of the financial sector is showing its laws and characteristics. Thefinancial is sometimes prosperous and sometimes depression, affecting the health ofthe economic and social development and the masses the financial expectations.With the mature of the macroeconomic climate monitoring and early warning,the monitoring and early warning in various departments of the national economy andindustry, economy and gradually put on the agenda. As an important economic sector,the monitoring and early warning technology research on the financial prosperity isparticularly important for the development of rational financial and economic policy.Shandong Province is an important coastal open cities and its financial sector isfast growing prosperous. Financial development is becoming more and moreimportant in economy and many cities put more and more attention to their financialdevelopment. For various reasons, Shandong Province has not yet carried out themonitoring and early warning of climate on the development of the financial industryand the cycle of the financial sector development has been long neglected. Therefore,putting on the research of the Shandong province financial economy comprehensive,in-depth, system, science and grasping the fluctuations of the financial developmentare crucial. It is in favor of early response to the crisis, to develop reasonablemeasures and programs to mitigate the impact of the economic and socialdevelopment. It has great theoretical and practical significance.The paper integrates references, basic theory and modeling methods of thefinancial monitoring and early warning and gives the definition of the differenceconcept. With its own characteristics, the paper gives the index systems of themonitoring and early warning in Shandong province. According to the datacharacteristics, the paper divides the climate indicator to first, synchronization, lagand builds Sentiment index, the composite index and the diffusion index. The paper analyzes the relationship between the Shandong province and the China. Then, on thebasis of the mathematical statistical methods, the paper designs the signal and theinterval division. It is forecasting the next two years station and gives relevant policyrecommendations. The thesis is divided into five parts:Part Ⅰ: Basic research. This part includes two chapters. The first chapter givessome concepts and definitions on the basis of economics perspective. The secondchapter gives several basic theories of the monitoring and early warning of financialprosperity and is prepare for the further research.Part Ⅱ: Design the indicator system of financial monitoring and early warming inShandong province. This chapter analyzes the influencing factors of the financialturmoil, identifies the key indicators of the financial cycle and builds the index systemof the financial prosperity monitoring and early warming indicator system. Then, thepaper gives the interpretation of the specific significance of the indicator system.Part Ⅲ: Building and booming the financial prosperity monitoring index of theShandong province. On the basis of the chapter3, the indicators are divided intofirst,synchronization, lag. According to various indicators, the paper builds thediffusion index, composite index and comprehensive index. Then, the paper analysisthe fluctuation of the financial development in Shandong province and analysis theinfluencing factors of the financial cycle. Final, the paper analysis the correlationbetween the China financial boom and the Shandong financial boom.Part Ⅳ: Predicting, warning and analysis the Shandong province financial boom.The fifth chapter designs the signal, interval partitioning into vigilance and predictfinancial indicators data in three years. According to the results, the paper carries outthe monitoring and early warning and gives the early warning for the future. Final, thepaper gives the relevant policy recommendations.Part Ⅴ: Full-text summary. The fifth part is the final chapter of the thesis. Thepart summarizes the research meaning, research text and research findings, gives theproblems and deficiencies and points out that the paper needs to improve.