Economic Monitoring And Early Warning System. Comparative Study

After 100 year development,monitoring and early warning system of business cycle , has become an important measure to monitor the economic operation in most countries of the world. China's research in this area began in the mid-1980s and until now it is still not mature, as a result of a short history and some exogenous factors. In contrast, Japan, which not only locates close to china and also has an important influence to us, started their research and practice of monitoring system as early as the beginning of the 1960s. After many years'improvement, it already operates effectively in Japan. Therefore, it's meaningful to compare these two countries'business cycle monitoring and early warning system.This article did a comparative study on two countries'monitoring and early warning system from the development history, the system components (including reference cycles, indicators, and seasonal adjustment methods, index calculation) and the recent operation. Based on the similarities and differences of two countries'monitoring and warning system, this paper also proposes that how to improve this system of China. The main achievements include:1,China and Japan have the same choice of the reference cycle mode, indicator, and seasonal adjustment and calculation methods.2,Japan has the advantages in determining the reference dates, constructing,tracking and repairing various indicators, which is useful for reference.3,In the future, China should perfect the system of statistical indicators and data. When picking up early-warning indexes, we need to take full concerns of China's economic situation and the recent performances of various indicators by tracking and analyzing them. In addition, it's also necessary to establish a professional institution to confirm the reference dates.During the process of writing this paper, the research of comparing the monitoring and early warning system of business cycle between Japan and China is rare, so I hope that the conclusions of this paper can make some contribution to the study of this area.