The Research On Urbanization And Changes Of Industrial Structure Of Hunan Province

This paper uses the methods of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,statistical analysis and econometric analysis to make a deep study on the dynamic relationship between urbanization and the changes of industrial structure.Firstly,through reviewing the study at home and abroad,we find that most of the research focus on the study of the relationship between urbanization of population and the development of industrial structure,ignoring the multi-dimentional meaning of the urbanization and industrial structure.Even if there are some scholars who analysing the urbanization and industrial structure from different angles,qualitative analysis and static model analysis can not reflect the dynamic process in which the variables of industrial structure responding to the pulse,resulting from the urbanization.Secondly,based on the scentific definition of urbanization and industrial structure, we establish the target system of the urbanization and industrial structure in Hunan province,and compute the comprehensive evaluation index.Furthmore,the current situation of the urbanization and industrial structure is assessed.The results show that urbanization lags behind the pace of the employment and output structure,and the mission of urbanization and industrialization is still very difficult.Finally,based on the theoretical analysis of the mechanism between urbannization and industrial structure,a dynamic econometric analysis is made on the comprehensive index of urbanization level and industrial structure using the methods of co-integration test combined with impulse response and variance decomposition analysis based on VAR modle.The results reveal that the comprehensiveis level of urbannization is the Granger cause of the comprehensiveis index of industrial structure,output structure and employment structure,but the contrary is not established.There are long-term relationships between comprehensive index of urbanization and output structure,and the short-term effect of the comprehensiveis level of urbannization on the output structure is positive though the long-term impact is negative.Nomatter in the view of short-term or long-term,the urbanization plays a lasting positive role on the comprehensiveis index of industrial structure and employment structure,and its pulse can explain approximately seventy percent of the prediction error of the industrial structure.On the whole ,it can be seen that urbanization plays an important role in the upgrading of industrial structure of the Hunan province and is favor of industry structure optimization ,but the effects of industry structure optimization on the urbanization are very weak. In view of the above, several relative policy proposals are put forward.