Natural Risk Management Of Soybean

Soybean is one of the large bulks of crops which are currently affected greatly by the market in China. China has become the world's largest soybean importer since the release of soybean import. Domestic soybean production only accounted for one-third of the amount of soybean consumption in China. Self-sufficiency rate is very low, but there are 42 million soybean farmers in China. Pricing power of soybean industry has completely been in the hands of the foreign suppliers of soybean. To protect China's soybean industry is to protect China's food security and oil security, as well as the interests of soybean farmers. The sowing acreage and production of soybean in Heilongjiang province both rank first in China. Planting and selling soybean are the main source of income of many farmers in Heilongjiang province.Using the disaster data of Heilongjiang Province from 1949 to 2006 and the disaster data of typical county Nenjiang and Hailun from 1984 to 2006,analysed what are the main types of disaster, the severity of the disaster and the evolution of the disaster in the periods of China's Five-Year Plan. After making regression analysis on the national soybean yield data from 1949 to 2007, the soybean yield data of Heilongjiang province from 1949 to 2007, the soybean yield data of Keshan County form 1949 to 2005, the soybean yield data of Hailun County from 1949 to 2006 and the soybean yield data of Nenjiang County from 1978 to 2006, the study established natural risk assessment indicators: average year, the harvest year and the failure year.Then the study proposed the expectation output model and estimated the losses caused by the disasters in Heilongjiang in the periods of China's Five-Year Plan on the basis of the gap between the expectation output and the actual production.â… . The main natural risk for the soybean in Heilongjiang province is alternating drought and floodsThe study found the major natural disasters in Heilongjiang Province are drought and floods, and they alternated; as a result of continuously growing, soil pests and diseases of soybean is more and more serious, which is one of the main reasons for the lower soybean yield; the probability of the occurrence of cold and hailstorm is very small, so is their impact on the agricultural production. Nenjiang County has its own characteristics of disasters: floods is the primary factor led to total destruction of the soybean; drought and cold are the secondary factors led to the agriculture damage; the impact of storms, pests and diseases on agricultural production is small in Nenjiang County. The major natural disaster in Hailun County is floods; the impact of hailstorm is great as well.â…¡. The natural risks totally caused 8% loss of the soybean production in Heilongjiang Province; the soybean loss in individual counties is different.The loss of soybean caused by the disasters in Heilongjiang province from 1949 to 2007 accounted for 8.18% of the actual total soybean output. The loss of soybean in Heilongjiang province fluctuated. The damage of soybean production in the "Tenth Five-Year" period has been the most serious since the "Seventh Five-Year" period. The loss of soybean in the early "Eleventh Five-Year" period was serious. The loss of soybean between counties was greatly different: the reduction of soybean production in Keshan county was less than 5% in all of the periods; in Hailun county, the loss of soybean accounted for an average of 18.01% of the actual output in the periods; the loss of soybean accounted for an average of 13.8% of the actual output from 1978 to 2006 in Nenjiang county.â…¢. The soybean production in Heilongjiang is large-scale; diseases and insect pests in soil was so serious that the soybean production declined muchBased on the questionnaire survey of the soybean farmers in three typical counties of Heilongjiang Province in August 2007, which were Hailun county, Keshan county and Nenjiang County, using statistical method, analysed the farmers'actual soybean production. The advantage: the land scale per capita in Heilongjiang Province was larger than the other provinces; age of the labor force was young; soybean farmers had good cultivation habit; mechanization in Heilongjiang Province was better. At the same time, there were a few aspects of problems: there was a lack of crop rotation; the cultural quality of the soybean farmers was low, so they lacked self-protection awareness towards risk; land management was not enough; the "small and complete" mode of production is not conducive to the efficient use of resources.â…£. Established the natural risks process management mechanism for soybeanThe process management mechanism is mainly divided into three periods (before the formation of risk, during the formation of risk, management after the loss) and contains comprehensive management throughout the process. The management before the formation of risk are as follows: to increase the investment in low-yielding fields so as to improve the productive capacity of land; to promote large-scale land operations in Heilongjiang Province; to increase the subsidies for the large agricultural implements; to make material reserve for disasters that may happen and publicize the knowledge of agricultural natural disaster relief; draw up a responding mechanism for contingency. The management during the formation of risk are: to make a model for yield prediction; to build up a sound system of information collection and information dissemination; to establish a risk monitoring system on a multi-disciplinary platform. The management after the loss are as follows: the agricultural sectors assist the insurance companies to do the payment of insurance claims for the losses of production and the damage of the agricultural facilities; to assess the losses properly and verify accurately; to implement measures to reduce losses; to make the post-disaster assessment in time and amend the contingency plans for different types of natural disasters to focus the defense. The comprehensive management are: to increase the financial support for soybean production; to establish a professional cooperative organization of farmers to improve production efficiency; to improve the agricultural insurance system; to provide more scientific and technological support to solve the technical problems in soybean cultivation.