The Calculation Of The Overall Scale Of Chinese International Hot Money

The increasing of expectation of RMB appreciation directly cause large-scale influx of international hot money, this phenomenon is attracted wide attention by academic circles. The previous research of most of scholars focused on qualitative analysis, there is little research on the calculation of international hot money from statistics. Although some scholars quantitatively analyze the scale of international hot money, the estimate results are very different from each other. So this paper uses statistic methods to analyze the scale of international hot money from quantitative angle.The theoretical research firstly describes the normal concept of international hot money, and analyzes the reasons and primary pathway of international hot money's influx into China due to Chinese actual situation. Then determines the theoretical calculation methods of international hot money, and defines the beginning time of international hot money's influx.Empirical study firstly analyzes the structure of international hot money which exists in China, then divides it into two parts: the influx part and the investment income part, and using different methods to calculate the two parts'scales due to the two parts'features. And the international hot money scale in influx part: adjust the increase of foreign exchange reserve form five facts such as the adjustment of foreign exchange and so on; using residual autoregressive method forecast normal scale of trade surplus in abnormal years, then using different-value between the statistic scale and forecasting scale calculate the trade surplus'false increase scale; using Ridge Regression to build linear model on the inflow amount FDI calculate the normal scale of FDI, then using different-value between the statistic scale and normal scale calculate the international hot money in FDI influx. The investment income of international hot money is primary divided into three parts: real estate premium, stock premium and bank deposit profit of international hot money, this paper separately using amount of investment multiplied by rate of return calculates respective profit, the sum of the three parts is the investment income of international hot money in China.Through calculation, there is about＄933.409 billion which accounts for more than 60% of Chinese foreign exchange reserve by the end of 2007. So many international hot money in China will cause great hidden danger. Due to this problem this paper proposes three relative advices and countermeasure: firstly, prevent the influx of international hot money into China; secondly, regulate the international hot money which exists in China; thirdly, copy with idiopathic sudden changes which the international hot money may cause.