An Empirical Analysis On The Flow Channels、Scale And Influencing Factors Of International Speculative Capitals

Since2003,the appreciation of RMB is expected to be continuous, especially after July21st,2005, when the new mechanism of RMB exchange rate deciding became effective. Thus, it is predicted that a great lot of hot money has entered into our country, waiting for the appreciation of RMB as well as speculating in some markets to get some high profit, which might make some shock on the domestic markets. Based on the existing literature on the basis of carding, the use of statistical methods for international capital, the scale of international capital influencing factor undertook quantitative analysis. So this paper uses statistic methods to analyze the scale of international hot money from quantitative angle.The theoretical research firstly describes the normal concept of international hot money, and analyzes the reasons and primary pathway of international hot money’s influx into China due to Chinese actual situation. Then determines the theoretical calculation methods of international hot money, and defines the beginning time of international hot money’s influx.The empirical research component is divided into international hot money, the scale of measurement and the impact of international hot money factor analysis two parts. Estimates of the scale of international hot money, the full aperture-based approach:the scale of international hot money,=foreign exchange reserves, the adjustment-the trade surplus-FDI-foreign debt+hot money hidden in the trade surplus+hot money hidden in the FDI+short-term debt model. Use of regression methods, the trade surplus and hot money hidden in FDI calculation that the true value and the difference is the hot money, the final summary of the results of the scale of international hot money in China in2003-2011; in the international hot money inflow the impact of factors, according to international capital flows theory holds that the international hot money, the impact of factors including the gross national product, domestic and foreign interest rate, exchange rate and capital market yields and inflation rates. Established international hot money inflows, and multiple linear regression model of factors and ridge regression model, after the obtained exchange rates and capital market yields are the main factors to affect China’s international hot money.