The Essence And Roots Of Sino-US Trade Surplus

In the late 1960s,with the further refinement of the world's division of labor and the gradual rise of intermediate trade,the era of international process division has quietly arrived.It not only symbolizes the leap of�quality�of the transnational division of labor model,but also reflects the gradual deepening of the production process which due to the liberalization and economic globalization.The international fragmentation of production is coming.At the same time,China actively promoted the development of opening up strategy and open economic practice,relying on the advantages of abundant element resources,lower labor costs and good international business environment,joined the international production segmentation system and global value chain in the form of "processing trade",and has pushed China's bilateral trade into a period of rapid growth with releasing the dividend of the country's population,the bilateral trade growth between China and the United States being the most prominent among this period.In 2018,it is the fortieth anniversary of China's implementation of the reform and opening strategy and the 18th anniversary of China's accession to the WTO.However,under the guidance of the strategy of�priority of the United States' interest",the Trump administration has successively created economic and trade frictions and insisted on launching trade war.It has triggered Sino-US trade disputes repeatedly and leading to the instability of Sino-US trade and the world economy.In the end,China's long-term,sustained,unilateral trade surplus with the United States plays a crucial role on it.Therefore,in order to uncover the excuses of the Trump administration and some interest groups in the United States,to quell the Sino-US trade war and create a good environment for Sino-US trade and even global trade,it is important to study the roots and essential of the long-term trade surplus between China and the United States.The article takes the international production segmentation as the entry point,and supports with theory of the international production segmentation and the global value chain.It combines the descriptive statistical analysis with the empirical model to deeply explore the essential and source problem of the huge trade surplus between China and the United States.First,the descriptive analysis part comprehensively applies the methods of theoretical analysis,time series dynamic comparison analysis and VS index analysis to analyze by chart for the theoretical basis of international production segmentation,China's special position in the global value chain,and the Sino-US trade surplus's scale,commodity structure,trade structure and relevant trade data of China and East Asian economies.It is concluded that the root cause of Sino-US trade surplus lies in international production segmentation.The essence is"the surplus is inside,the profit is outside".Secondly,the empirical analysis section establishes a national multinational time series model and a panel data model at the national level and the industry level respectively based on the VSS value and the parts trade data of a country's international production division level,and to multi-level test the impact of international production segmentation for Sino-US trade surplus.The results of econometric analysis show that:l.From the national level,China's participation in international production segmentation,especially in the East Asian production division network,has a significant positive impact on the rise of Sino-US trade surplus,but empirical tests have not found its short-term effects.The FDI attracted by China also promotes the trade surplus between China and the United States to a certain extent;the influence of exchange rate factors is limited.2.From industry perspective,international production segmentation has a significant positive impact on the trade surplus of the Chinese and American industrial sectors.The specific performance is that the positive impact on the export trade volume of China's industrial industry to the United States is significant,and the corresponding trade creation effect is greater than the trade transfer effect,while the positive impact on the Chinese industrial industry's import trade volume is not significant.Finally,focusing on the essence and roots of Sino-US trade surplus,and putting forward some constructive suggestions in light of the specific situation of China's internal reform and opening up.