Theories And Analyze Of Real Estate Periodic Fluctuation In Chongqing

Recently, the real estate industry develops with great speed in China, and it becomes more and more important in the national economy. In the other hand, the real estate is running with the market fluctuation and real estate bubble because of the rule of market economy. These phenomena make many negative effects to national economy, which attracts the social attention. This paper manages to analyze the market of real estate using statistical method, and seek the law and feature of its periodic fluctuation, which can make reference for measure the development of real estate and national economy. AT the same time, it can provide the basis of the macro-control policy of fluctuation.This article is referred to detailed study on business cycle fluctuation of real estate industry based on analysis method of modern economics and the current economics situation in our country, which is composed of the following two parts.Part one: Through brief summary on the main theories of real estate periodic fluctuation and discussion on the important viewpoint on real estate periodic fluctuation and discussion on the important viewpoints on real estate periodic fluctuation provide the measures of real estate fluctuation, based on the true case, the empirical analysis of the influencing factors of real estate fluctuation in our country is given.Part two: The real estate market of Chongqing is analyzed using the theories in part one. Its contents embodies two facets: First, using factor analysis method and analyzing the index, the mathematical model of the whole trend measure of real estate fluctuation in Chongqing is given, and the long-term trend curve and the periodic fluctuation curve are provided by dividing the whole trend. And then, this paper analyses the influencing factor of the real estate fluctuation in Chongqing using the correlate analysis method and multiple regression analysis method, as the result, the main influencing factors is gained.Two important conclusions are gained by analyzing to the real estate of Chongqing. Since 1996, the real estate of Chongqing passed through three periodic fluctuations and the duration of period becomes longer. The recent period has lasted 4 years. The main factors which affect the period of real estate are Average Wage of Staff & Workers in Chongqing. At last, some advices are given for promoting the promoting the persistent development of real estate industry.