Analysis On The Regularity And Trend Of The Periodic Fluctuation Of My Country’s Tungsten Industry

The tungsten industry cyclical fluctuation means that when the cycle is different,the tungsten industry presents a corresponding market scene.If the cycle is rising,relatively positive conditions such as strong demand will appear in the tungsten industry;conversely,relatively negative conditions such as weak demand will also be reflected.This article analyzes the main influencing factors in the development of China’s tungsten industry through supply,demand,price,policies,etc.,and finds out the law and trend of the development cycle of China’s tungsten industry,and finally predicts the future development trend of China’s tungsten industry.Provide theoretical basis for sustainable and healthy development.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)Summarize the status quo of my country’s tungsten industry,and comb the domestic and foreign related research on the relationship between my country’s economic cycle fluctuations and the industry,and provide a theoretical basis for exploring the cyclical development trend of my country’s tungsten industry.Through a detailed analysis of the current situation of my country’s tungsten industry through supply,demand,price,industrial policy and other factors,the study found that my country’s tungsten industry has relatively frequent cyclical fluctuations.(2)In order to better analyze the cyclical law of my country’s tungsten industry,the cyclical fluctuation index system of China’s tungsten industry is constructed on the basis of the current situation of my country’s tungsten industry.The three main components of price component and supply component are used to construct the comprehensive development index of my country’s tungsten industry,and analyze the cyclical fluctuation trend of my country’s tungsten industry through the filtering method.It can be concluded that my country’s tungsten industry has gone through seven complete cycles from 1991 to 2020.It is now in the eighth cycle,and the average cycle length is five years.Affected by policy adjustments,later policies were introduced one after another,resulting in increased volatility in the later period of my country’s tungsten industry cycle.(3)Using the BP neural network rolling forecast to predict the fluctuation trend of my country’s tungsten industry from 2021 to 2025,the prediction result converges to a fixed value when rolling 17 times,and it is obtained that my country’s tungsten industry will be on the rise from 2021 to 2022 in the future.It is in the downward period from 2022 to 2023,and then rebounds,reaching a small peak in 2024,and the overall trend is upward.The comprehensive research results show that the cyclical fluctuations of China’s tungsten industry are influenced by many factors,and the fluctuations before 2004 are smaller than those after 2004,mainly due to the high importance attached by the Chinese government to the tungsten industry and the continuous adjustment of export policies and industrial policies.Using BP neural network rolling forecasts,the cyclical fluctuation trend of China’s tungsten industry in the next five years is analysed and corresponding suggestions are made to provide reference for the study of China’s tungsten industry development.