The Study Of CGE Model For Xinjiang

Since the reform and opening policy nearly 30 years ago, especially since the implement of the national west development strategy, Xinjiang economy obtained rapid expanding. But owning to Xinjiang's weak economic basis and economic structure, there are many more prominent problems in its development's process, therefore, it would be much more important to adopt correct, effective policy to guide and change Xinjiang economy status.CGE Computable General Equilibrium) model has developed for the past many years. As a result of its advantages in strict theory basics, multi-department relation, and price endogenous and so on, the CGE model has become one of the normal tools for economic policy simulation and analysis, and its application prospect gradually appears in aspects of trade policy, environment policy, agricultural policy, and resource policy. Just from this angle, this article attempt to construct the theory frame of Xinjiang CGE model. And based on the actual situation of Xinjiang statistical data, this article try to establish Xinjiang's Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and form a balanced data set. And then based on this, this article constructs a Xinjiang multi-department's CGE model, to provide a theory and method support for further studying the influence of different factor's change to Xinjiang economy, and for the analysis, formulation and appraisal of province economic policy's.Based on the reference of domestic and foreign research results, this article introduces , in the first chapter, the background and present situation of CGE model, the content and the innovation of the article and the outline of CGE model including its rationale, characteristic, basic structure and application. Then in the second chapter, this article analyzes earnestly the characteristic of Xinjiang economy, and elaborately analyzes the problem of Xinjiang's finance transfer payment and its affection, building the foundation for the model's application. In the third chapter, this article discuss the conceiving of the CGE model, the uniformity datum questions, parameter estimation, and the model's solution strategy and algorithm, and determine the datum year, the Branches of the economy, the model's variables and parameter, and the model's equation of Xinjiang CGE model, and then establishes Xinjiang's Social Accounting Matrix, and does the calibration and the estimate of the parameter. Finally in the last chapter, this article carries on the macroscopic closed, the solution and the application of Xinjiang CGE model, mainly aims at the question of Xinjiang's finance transfer payment and its affection.