Study On Analysis And Change Trend Of Land Use Structure In Linhai City

Land use structure refers to all types of land use within the region in the contrast of number, relationship in space and in the pattern of formation and ownership. Status quo land use structure of Linhai was analyzed through diversity index, location index and Lorrenz curve analysis methods; land use structure change of Linhai was analyzed through contribution rates Analysis, entropy change Analysis and land use intensive analysis; land use structure of Linhai City in 2010 and 2020 has also been forecasted through grey GM (1,1) model all based on land use structure data 1997-2004, Linhai City, and its 2005 update data. Compare forcasted results of grey GM (1,1) with Sector demand method's to show their advatages and disadvantages.The results show that:Linhai City has a variaty of land use types, with a great number of regional significance agricultural land,but lack in land-use combination, Obviously geographical diversity land-use and low intensive use of land. In the next few years, farmland, park, and other agricultural land will be further reduced while construction sites will continue to increase. Diversity index would experience a change of rising fist then going to a fall; land-use structure will further in a development of the disorder; but combination of types of land to maintain forest land -land - virgin land. Gray forecast model could be made good use of by reflecting changes in land use structure and the speed of trends in a stable land-use policy. It's easy to apply and based on data for less. Sector demand method requires a large amount of data and information, but can fufilled the demand for construction land, to meet the conditions established to co-ordinate all the land. Yet, long-term land need is always underestimated in this model.