Analysis And Forecast Of Consumption Structure Of Urban Residents In Hefei City

Consumption is not only an important factor to promote macroeconomic development,but also closely links with the micro-family life.And it plays an important role in promoting the sound and rapid development of the national economy.From the beginning of the 20th century,since the concept of consumption structure formed,the research of the consumption structure has never stopped.And a lot of research results,as a solid theoretical basis,have played an important role in guiding residents' consumption.On the basis of summing up the existing literature theory,this paper chooses the urban residents of Hefei as the research object.Through combining the Econometrics,Statistics and other related knowledge,this paper analyzes the consumption structure of urban residents in Hefei by means of literature method,comparative analysis method and dynamic and static combination analysis method.And the paper makes an objective description of the current situation and characteristics of urban residents' consumption in Hefei,as well as making a forecast of the consumption of urban residents in Hefei in the next five years.This paper mainly through the following several aspects to investigate the consumption structure of urban residents in Hefei city.First of all,by consulting the statistical yearbook,the paper compiled the consumption expenditure structure date of urban residents in Hefei from 2000 to 2015.Using of those data,the paper analyzed the characteristics of the urban residents'consumption expenditure structure and the changes in the consumption.Through the analysis we found that the consumption expenditure structure on the development of the state for urban residents is constantly optimizing the upgrade.Through the analysis of Engel's Coefficient,it was found that the living standard of urban residents in Hefei was basically reached the level of wealth.After analyzing the data by Cluster Analysis and Gray Relational Analysis,we found that the consumption structure of urban residents in Hefei was changing,the impact of income on various expenditures was also constantly balanced and the consumption structure of residents is continuously optimized to a higher stage.Secondly,on the basis of the above conclusions,the paper establishes the Extend Linear Expenditure System model for consumption expenditure structure of Hefei urban residents and combined with comparative analysis to empirically study the consumption structure of urban residents from the perspective of marginal propensity to consume,basic consumption expenditure and consumption demand elasticity.According to the empirical research,it was found that the marginal consumption tendency of urban residents in Hefei is slightly lower than that in Anhui Province,and the consumer demand for commodities is affected by the price of the commodity itself,which is higher than the price of other consumer expenditure items.Changing food prices have the greatest impact on demand for other commodities.Finally,the gray forecasting GM(1,1)model was established to forecast the development trend of urban residents' consumption structure in next five years from 2016 to 2020.According to the research and analysis,the paper found that the existing problems in the development process of the consumption structure of the urban residents in Hefei,and put forward the corresponding countermeasures.