The Research On Investment Risk Management Of Longtan Hydropower Project

There are three main problems occurred in the project investment under the existing hydropower construction project investment management system in China. They are budgetary estimate exceeding estimation, budget exceeding budgetary estimate and final accounts exceeding budget respectively, shorting for"three-exceeding". One important factor contributes to the"three exceeding"is there lacking management method in investment in uncertainty of hydrology, geology, change in designing, terrible temperature, and price changing. The uncertainties above existing during the process of establishing, designing and implementing the hydropower construction project are the risks of the hydropower construction project. Howerver, most research on project risk remains on the stage of qualitative in China at present. The problem has to be settled urgently that how to apply the risk management method in hydropower construction project to discover, measure and control risk, especially quantitatively analyzing, estimating the risk of hydropower construction project.This paper first studies the relevant theory and method of the risk management. Then, we introduce Longtan hydropower project and analyze the project contracts simply. And analyze the investment risk of the three contracts, that is, underground diversion system, dam project and Dafaping sand producing and operating mainly from the condition supplied by the employer, nature environment, geology conditions, expenditure estimate, relationship between the contracts and the price risk. This paper also gives a simple investment risk analysis on other contracts, then, estimates the lost caused by many risk factors, determines the project's risk investment amount and finally, puts forward the corresponding risk management measures base on the risk type.This study not only offers helpful message in the investment risk management in Longtan hydropower construction project, but also have profound actual meaning and project application value in analyzing and managing the project investment risk in project management on one's own and determining the risk and its range of project investment precisely.