An Study On Demand Of Life Insurance Under The Aging Trend In China

China is one of the developing countries who enter into aging society early. Further more, the speed of aging in China is much faster than those who have experienced this process, which shows its particularity. The aging process will bring more important influence to the demand of life insurance than before. To research the approaches and degree of that influence will impulse government to put forward some feasible policies in the life insurance field for national welfare and the people's livelihood purpose. Moreover, through the research insurers will realize the trend of life insurance demand and make reasonable plans to reply the changeable market. At present, researches about taking aging trends as the background of life insurance demand study are very few, so the author in this thesis chooses the demand of life insurance under the aging trends as the research object.Based on the aging problem in China, this thesis first analyzes the main factors affecting life insurance demand and applies correlation analysis to support these. Among these factors, old dependency ratio as an important index in describing aging trend is the focus in this thesis. Then, using regression analysis, the author chooses suitable variables and sets up a model of life insurance demand under the aging trend in China, and makes statistical test with historical board data. After that, the author sets actuarial assumptions of birthrate and mortality, makes patulous future life table, and forecasts aging trend which is denoted by old dependency ratio. With the forecasts and assumptions of all the independent variables, the author forecasts future demand of life insurance in next 50 years using the model in this thesis. At last, the author analyzes different changes of life insurance demand under different aging trend scenes.Through this research, we find: In the following 50 years, the fast deepening of aging trends will make a great influence on the demand of life insurance. And as a index of aging trend, old dependency ratio will become one of the most important factors that influence life insurance demand. The reason is the special aging trend in China which is different from world general level.