Based On SD Model Sustainable Development Of Shanghai Urban Workers’ Aging Insurance

At present, the concept of sustainable development has become firmly rooted andbecome a guide at all levels of government action. Pension funds are to promote thesustainable development of old-age insurance system, the cornerstone of sustainabledevelopment, which is very important. However, with the rapid economic developmentand population aging trends in deepening pension fund income over expenditure of thesituation get worse. Old-age insurance for urban workers in Shanghai since its inception in1986, after20years of development, essentially established a dominant position. However,with the social and economic development, the continuous improvement of the level ofpension payments, an aging population, as well as institutional reforms and other factors,urban workers pension insurance fund, the balance of payments imbalances have emerged.Since2003, the fund gaps began to appear until2008, the fund a deficit of70billion yuan,is expected to the end of2009, the fund deficit will exceed10billion yuan. Coupled withhuge hidden debts, the Shanghai municipal government is facing severe financial pressure,the huge pension’s gap and even affects the stability of the entire old-age insurance system.Old-age insurance for urban workers, whether sustainable development relate to the livesof workers after retirement. Therefore, the pension insurance fund for sustainabledevelopment has become a current issue of widespread concern and to carry out researchhas important theoretical significance and practical significance.From the Shanghai pension insurance system of urban realities, through access torelevant literature, we identify the issues affecting urban workers pension insurance fundfor sustainable development factors and their systematic analysis carried out, mainlyincluding the aging population, increasing the retirement age unreasonable, the system low coverage, and the fund added value poor. On this basis, the establishment of systemdynamics model, respectively, from the insured population structure, wage levels, thefinancial subsidies for urban workers in Shanghai’s pension fund deficit for the simulationand prediction. Study based on data of year2000-2008, using computer software, such asVENSIMPLE5.4, the validity of the model testing and sensitivity analysis, so that the dataobtained from a more scientific and reliable.The analysis concludes as follows: Shanghai, the average wage in2020of the Socialabout84,052yuan,106,313yuan for2025, the fund shortfall by2020of68.2billion in2025to reach over980billion yuan. In drawing on domestic and international policies andmeasures to adjust pension gap, while old-age insurance for urban workers in Shanghai putforward for sustainable development policies, and policy sensitivity of the systemdynamics analysis. Discuss a population policy, systems maintenance ratio, the retirementage, and financial subsidies to the pension insurance fund to compensate for gaps in thedegree. Finally we analyzed the effect of all policies. Old-age insurance fund for urbanworkers to achieve the sustainable analysis of urban old-age insurance in Shanghaiprovided the basis for sustainable development, but also for the development of Shanghaisocial security, the development of strategies to provide guidance and reference.