Synthetical Evaluation And Pre-warning On Sustainable Development Of Wu'an City

Sustainable development is a comprehensive systematic project, involving a region's resources, environment and economy etc, so it is difficult to use a approach for scientific comprehensive sustainability assessment of a region. How to evaluate sustainable development of a region more scientific and reasonable now is the issue being studied by the large number of experts and scholars. By established the integrated assessment model of the regional sustainable development based on emergy indicators and ecological footprint indicators, the paper evaluated comprehensively the sustainable development of the Wu'an city from 1997 to 2006, and applicated BP neural network model to have a pre-warning for sustainable development conditions. Specific research contents and results are as follows:(1) Firstly the paper established a comprehensive evaluation system for sustainable development, and conducted the emergy analysis and the ecological footprint analysis separately for regional system of Wu'an. It has similar results of the evaluation derived from different angles, which shows that the emergy analysis and the ecological footprint analysis using in the evaluation of the sustainable development of the regional system has a certain degree of scientific, and as a basis for the next step of the comprehensive evaluation based on emergy indicators and ecological footprint indicators.(2) According to the indicators'characteristics, it classified emergy indicators and ecological footprint indicators into resources, environmental and economic sub-systems, and screened the indicators to determine the sustainable development integrated evaluation system; used analytic hierarchy method and entropy method to calculate the weight of each indicator; It established comprehensive evaluation model of regional sustainable development in three aspects of the regional development level (L), development sustainability (S) and harmonious degree (H) to calculate the sustainable development indicator (SDI); comprehensive evaluation results show that the sustainability of the resources and the environment sub-systems have more or less the same trend in Wu'an, which is a downward trend, the sustainability of the economic sub-system increases slowly, the sustainability of the regional system have an annual decline, and always at a very low level.(3) Using BP neural network model obtained pre-warning results of the sustainable development: In the circumstances of the resources use, environmental pollution and economic development have no significant changes, the sustainable development of Wu'an would be still low in the future, and would always be in the state of moderate or serious warning.Based on the comprehensive evaluation of the sustainable development and pre-warning results, it can make recommendations for the sustainable development of Wu'an from three aspects of the resources, environment and economic: Rationally exploit and utilize mineral resources and strengthen the protection of the cultivated land to achieve the sustainable development of resources; Enhance the ecological environment building and improve the regional ecological carrying capacity to achieve environmental sustainable development; Adjust the industrial structure and change the mode of economic growth to achieve economic sustainable development.