Study On Sustainable Utilization Of Cultivated Land In Zhejiang Provincethrough The Modified Emergy-based Ecological Footprint Model

Taking the sustainable utilization of cultivated land as the entry point and applying the modified ecological footprint model for cultivated land based on emergy analysis, this paper revised yield factor of Zhejiang cultivated land from perspectives of national hectare and sub-national hectare and established cultivated land ecological sustainability index. A dynamic analysis was made on the sustainable utilization of Zhejiang cultivated land from the year 2003 to 2012 on time dimension while a spatial difference analysis was made on the 2012 sustainable utilization of Zhejiang 11 prefecture level cities on spatial dimension. Then a comprehensive IPAT analysis for Zhejiang 11 prefecture level cities based on the per capita ecological footprint of cultivated land in 2012 was conducted. Finally, by applying the gray forecasting model of GM (1,1), per capita ecological footprint and per capita ecological carrying capacity of Zhejiang cultivated land from 2013 to 2018 were predicted, and the ecological sustainability indexes were calculated. Findings showed that:per capita ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land in Zhejiang Province had been on a relatively low level and changed little from 2003 to 2012; per capita ecological footprint of cultivated land had been dropping in a fluctuant way, and the ecological deficit had been eased during the ten years, but the cultivated land ecological sustainability index remained at a moderately unsustainable level between 0.2150 and 0.2664. Besides, in 2012, though the 11 cities in Zhejiang Province were all involved in a large ecological deficit, per capita ecological carrying capacity and ecological footprint of cultivated land of them reflected significant spatial differences:Ningbo, Zhoushan, Shaoxing, Lishui, Taizhou and Jinhua were in the moderately unsustainable state while Hangzhou, Wenzhou, Huzhou, Quzhou and Jiaxing were in the highly unsustainable state. On the level of economic development, the space occupancy rates of Lishui, Quzhou, Wenzhu, Jinhua, Huzhou, Shaoxing, Jiaxing, Ningbo, Hangzhou in economic activity were higher than the average level of Zhejiang Province, the technical level were lower than the average level of Zhejiang Province in varying degrees. The low efficiency of cultivated land using will cause a large influence on the ecological environment. And the prediction result suggested the cultivated land in Zhejiang Province from 2013 to 2018 will be in middle unsustainable use state. These results will provide theoretical references and solutions for the overall planning of cultivated land ecological security forecast and land utilization in Zhejiang Province.