Dynamic Analysis On The Sustainable Cultivated Land Use In Suzhou City Based On Emergy-extend Ecological Footprint Model

Cultivated land is the base of agriculture and national economy. It’s more and more prominent scarcity decides that it must take the sustainable development.However, the state of our national cultivated land resources is rigorous, the amount decreases year by year, the general quality is not good, the environment of cultivated land becomes deteriorated, which challenge the sustainable use of cultivated land. At the new circumstances, we need to enforce the study of farmland sustainable both in theory and practice.The paper improves the ecological footprint, and builds the model of emergy-extend ecological footprint by introduction of emergy theory. The model is used to research on the cultivated land sustainable of Suzhou City in Anhui Provinces. The aim of this paper is not only to enrich the cultivated land sustainable theory, but also to provide reference for cultivated land use through find out and master the law of cultivated land sustainable change.At the beginning part of this paper,the background and significance of the thesis are described, the research development of cultivated land use theory and ecological footprint are reviewed,.the study contents、technical route and research methods are illustrated aw well. Next part is theoretical foundation,the part discusses the connotation of cultivated land sustainable use, introduces the ecological footprint and emergy theory to laying a solid foundation for below.Then,let’s move into the key theory part of the paper:the part extends the ecological footprint concept at the base of analyzing the defect of ecological footprint, builds the extend ecological footprint, combines with emergy to build the model of emergy-extend ecological footprint, and introduces how to calculate the model on detail. A problem worthy to be pointed out is that the paper improves the ecological capacity model’s calculation method by effective cultivated land coefficient;The fourth part firstly analyses the present status of cultivated land use in Suzhou City, including both basic trend and present land use characteristics; The part also uses the model of emergy-extend ecological footprint to analyze the cultivated land sustainable use from1997to2007in Suzhou City.First,the part counts the city’s cultivated land extend ecological footprint and ecological capacity, then analyses their change years by years. One key point of the part is to analyze the dynamic change of cultivated land sustainable use through studying three index:cultivated land ecological resources sustainable index, cultivated land ecological stress index, cultivated land consumption-development index. The part uses principal component to select the main driving factors to influence cultivated land sustainable use, and combines with society、economy and ecology situation to make further explation.At The fifth part part, the paper forecasts the future trend of cultivated land sustainable use with gray system theory; In the sixth part, the paper gives advice on how to promote Suzhou’s cultivated land sustainable use; The final part discusses the conclusion、innovation points and next contents to further study of the paper.The study results shows that the model of emergy-extend ecological footprint can be used to analyzed cultivated land sustainable use by considering both consumption and development, by exploitation of three index; The cultivated land of Suzhou City was placed in unsustainable state during1997-2007.The situation will go further if people in this city utilizate cultivated land at previous pattern. The paper put forwards below to promote Suzhou’s cultivated land sustainable use level:control population growth, strength land management, improve cultivated land ecological quality、perfect flood prevention and drought resistance ability and build cultivated land early warning system.