Forecast Of Energy Demand For Chongqing City

Energy is the important material foundation for social development, along with our country's GDP swift growth, the entire society is getting bigger and bigger to the energy demand. Therefore accurate forecasting energy demand will be very tremendous influence to our country's economic development. A well-designed strategy of energy development is a causal factor to the healthy, stable and sustainable development of economy. However, the modeling and analysis of energy demand is one of the basic elements of energy strategy planning.Since CQ is a established municipality directly under the central government, social and economic development made remarkable achievements, has entered a medium-term industrial development. This is a development cycle which is at a stage of high-energy, increase energy demand, "blackouts" and "Gasoline Shortages", "Mei Huang", appeared frequently energy resources have become scarce socio-economic development for CQ is a major bottleneck. In this paper, it studies the energy demand for CQ city, committed to the study of energy demand model. Coal consumption for CQ city as evidence, through a variety of comparative analysis of the model best suited to arrive at CQ's energy demand forecast model. Research can reasonable to develop of the strategic planning, optimizing energy structure, promoting sustainable development based on the decision-making. The Paper put forward by the study will be useful in the analysis of energy demand and energy demand forecasts.This Paper is divided into six chapters. The first chapter is a introduction. The second chapter is energy consumption analysis of the status quo for CQ city. Because the energy demand is a complexity system, according to the presentation of the concept of energy, energy demand and the analysis about the actuality of energy consumption in CQ, obtains subject matter which in the energy consumption exists. The third chapter uses ARIMA to build a model of energy consumption for CQ city on the basis of energy consumption analysis. The fourth chapter introduces the regression and ARMA combination model to build a model of energy demand for CQ city. The fifth chapter introduces grey theory to build a model of energy demand for CQ city, and three models predict the outcome of the comparison. Obtains the return and the time series combined method through the contrast comparison for the most superior forecast model, and carries on the forecast using this model to CQ 2006-2008 year coal resource's demanding. The sixth chapter is a Conclusions and recommendations. Summed up the paper work done and the results achieved, finally put forward measure and proposals.