Forecast Of Energy Supply And Demand And Analysis The Development Strategy Of Hebei Province

During the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period,Hebei Province will implement a clean energy strategy.This is proposed under the situation where the international energy pattern has undergone profound changes and China has opened up the energy revolution.The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will bear the brunt of this change,and it is certainly a top battleground for Hebei Province.The industrial structure and energy consumption structure that have been formed over a long period of time have brought heavy environmental burden and growth pressure to Hebei’s economic and social development.Since the haze weather became more severe in 2013,the coordinated development of energy and the environment was once again pushed to the cusp of the storm.The highlighting and resolution of energy issues is a must for Hebei to change its development mode.In this study,qualitative and quantitative analysis was conducted by collecting relevant data and data,including the following:(1)Corresponding analysis of the current situation of energy consumption structure in Hebei Province and the factors affecting energy consumption in Hebei Province.(2)After forecasting the consumption structure and total energy consumption in Hebei Province in 2020,it was found that Hebei Province is a province with a large energy production and energy consumption province.The total amount of energy consumption in 2015 increased by 2.63 times compared to 2000,with an average annual increase of 17.5%.In 2016,it reached nearly 340 million tons of standard coal.Energy consumption and economic development,rapid population growth,environmental protection,and continuous advances in science and technology are mutually constraining and affecting each other,and together constitute a complex system of energy consumption demand.This report uses elasticity coefficient method,grey forecasting method and regression forecasting method to select three periods of GDP growth rate of 5.5%,7%,and 7.5% during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period,and measure the total energy consumption of the three kinds of arranging combinations.In 2020,the province’s energy consumption will be around 388,963,900 tons of standard coal,with a total value of 4,083.695 billion yuan,and energy consumption per unit of GDP will be 0.952 million tons,which is 54.2% lower than the 20,800 tons in 2000.This compares with the energy consumption in Hebei Province.The target GDP for the 3rd five-year plan will reach 4.3 trillion yuan,and the total energy consumption will be 372 million tons of standard coal.There is still a certain gap.(3)Through the forecast of the total energy supply and supply structure in Hebei Province in 2020,it is estimated that by 2020,the total energy supply in Hebei Province will be about 91,281,430 tons of standard coal,which is much lower than the total energy consumption of the province,and for energy supply Gaps,propose solutions to the gap problem.(4)Through the evaluation of the use of clean energy in Hebei Province,the results show that the current status of clean energy use in Hebei Province cannot meet the needs for sustainable development of energy,environment,and economy.From the indicator level,the ratio of clean energy production,per capita energy consumption,and industrial exhaust emissions are largely different.From the factor level analysis,the factors behind the drag are mainly energy development level,environmental development level,and energy-society coordination level.Item indicators.(5)Grasping the development trend of clean energy at home and abroad,drawing on effective models and experiences,and proposing measures to promote the development of clean energy use policy mechanisms,market mechanisms,and innovation mechanisms.