Grey Correlation Analysis And Prediction For Housing Demand Of Changsha

Along with the housing system reform, China's domestic market has begun to take shape after more than 10 years of development, and accounts for the dominant position in the national economy. Whether to the entire real estate industry or to its related industries, living environment and socio-economic, the housing market's impact is very significant. Also, analyzing and forecasting the demand for the housing market scientifically and rationally is of important significance.In recent years Changsha's urbanization level upgrades continuously and per capita disposable income continued to grow. As a result, the attractiveness of Changsha is significantly enhanced, the space of real estate development is constantly expanding, the value of the housing market is developed rapidly, residents'purchasing fever continued to heating up. Residential housing investment and consumption's growing has become the major driving force of Changsha national economy's rapid development. However, with the vacancy rate for housing rising, the blind construction of the housing market has become deep trouble.Demand for residential housing market is the dominant factor of housing market, affecting the supply of housing. Only through the correct analysis of demand, the development trend of residential sector can be seen and a theoretical basis can be provided to the government departments to formulate macro-control policies. Then, the housing industry would achieve sustainable development. Therefore, it is necessary to accurately forecast the demand in Changsha of the next few years, thus to guide the developer invest rationally considering the effective demand in the housing market, which will help the Government to make strong macro-control over the development of the housing market .In this paper, the housing demand of Changsha is studied. First, with the housing demand-related concepts and theories clarified we introduced the development of the housing market in Changsha. Second, through the grey correlation analysis we identified main factors which were affecting the housing market in Changsha were the region's GDP and per capita disposable income, followed by the completion of the residential area, Non-agricultural population and other factors. Then we established the forecasting model of housing demand in Changsha, which was used to do point and interval prediction of the demand. We got that the housing demand of Changsha would increase in the next 3 years but the growth decrease. Finally, considering the housing market in Changsha of changes in the status quo and future trend, the market participants and government regulators are given reasonable proposals.This paper's findings are of reference value for further study of other cities'housing demand, especially the influencing factors'relationship on housing demand and demand forecasting.