Forecast And Analysis Of Tourism Demand In Shandong Province

With the sustained and rapid economic development of our country and the increase in the level of residents' income,the number of tourists and the total revenue of tourism in China have developed rapidly.Tourism has become an important industry in the national economy.Vigorously developing tourism is conducive to satisfying the spirit and material needs of the people and is conducive to the development of the national economy.The development of tourism has also played an important role in adjusting the economic structure,stimulating the development of related industries,and improving the material and cultural living standards of urban and rural residents.Similarly,Shandong's tourism industry is also developing at a rapid pace,vigorously developing Shandong's tourism industry,and driving economic growth.However,there are still some problems in the development of the tourism industry.Therefore,the study of Shandong tourism demand on the development of Shandong tourism and Shandong The economic growth not only has important theoretical value,but also has very important practical significance.In order to forecast the tourism market in Shandong Province,we first collected data on the number of inbound tourists and total tourism revenue in Shandong for the past 10 years from the official website of the Shandong Tourism Bureau.Then we analyzed the Shandong tourism market and divided the Shandong tourism market into four categories.Secondly,using the single model and the combined forecasting model to predict the total tourism revenue in Shandong Province and the total number of domestic tourism in Shandong Province,and compare the forecast results of the three single models and the combined forecasting model,and found that the forecasting effect of the combined forecasting model is the best.The full text is divided into six chapters:The first chapter is the introduction of the full text,mainly discusses the purpose and significance of the research,research methods,research status,and expounds the thinking of the paper's research,which lays the foundation for the full text research.The second chapter,the theoretical models of the prediction model applied in this paper are introduced.The main methods are the time series model,gray prediction model,support vector regression model,local weighted scattered point smoothing method,and the combination of models for the follow-up forecast bedding.The third chapter,the Shandong tourism market analysis,using K-means clustering method,respectively to Shandong 2013 to 2016 four years of tourism status of the cluster analysis,compare the differences in the development of tourism for three years.The fourth chapter,we first use the time series model and the grey forecasting model toforecast the total tourism revenue in Shandong.Then we choose the predictive model ARIMA and SVR models to form a combined forecasting model,and combine the three models again with the new forecasting model.Shandong Province's total tourism revenue is forecasted and compared with the prediction effect of two single models and two combined forecasting models.It is found that the forecasting effect of the combined forecasting model is the best and the forecasting result is obtained.The fifth chapter,we use the local weighted scatter smoothing method and the grey forecasting model to forecast the number of domestic tourists in Shandong.Then we select a combination model of the model with good prediction effect and the support vector machine model,and the combined prediction model of the three models respectively.The prediction and analysis of the total number of domestic tourism in Shandong,and the prediction results of the two single models and the two combined forecast models are compared to obtain the forecast results.The sixth chapter,the summary and outlook of the full text,summarizes the main conclusions and innovations of the paper.The main innovations of this paper are: first,the tourism demand in Shandong is forecasted using a combination of single model and combined model.Second,the introduction of non-parametric methods to predict tourism demand in Shandong.Third,the non-parametric method is added to the combined model to obtain a reasonable prediction result.