Analysis For Disequilibrium Models Of Supply And Demand On China's Residential Market

Since 1990s, China has begun to reform the housing allocation system and changed the welfare housing allocation to commercialization and monetization, for the goal of the rapid development of China's housing industry. Housing market has now become an important pillar industry of the national economy. However, since 1998, especially in the first decade of the new century, with a substantial increase in real estate investment overall, the residential investment has gradually emerged overheating in some parts, and the housing prices rose so sharply that people can not afford it. People became more and more focused on the housing problem. At the same time, it has attracted wide attention of government deparments. The government also took a number of policies aimed at stabilizing housing prices and adjusting the structure of the macro-control measures. This paper argues that, from the long-term and overall perspective of the development of housing market, prices are supported by the demand and supply factor, which are basic economic factors. From supply and demand of China's housing market situation, China's residential market existed non-equilibrium phenomenon both in structure and volume. Using non-equilibrium theory of supply and demand to analysis housing market can be more realistic to show the operating conditions in China housing market, and easier to understand the non-equilibrium problems that existed in the supply and demand relations in housing market.In this paper, firstly, the housing market supply and demand non-equilibrium issues were analyzed. In economics, the non-equilibrium analysis is related to equilibrium analysis. The state of non-equilibrium description is that, people make decisions in supply and demand, not only considers the traditional price factor, but also considers the quantity constraint. And mainly through the quantitative change, make each bound the effective supply and demand balance between markets.Therefore, through the contrast of equilibrium and non-equilibrium conception, we can see that, balance is achieved through prices grope of supply and demand, and non-equilibrium is achieved by quantitative grope of supply and demand. Theory of non-equilibrium is based on demand, trading non-equilibrium quantity and quantity signal, quotas mechanism, nominal demand and effective demand for microeconomic foundation. In the non-balanced theory, the supply and demand of housing market is based on market clearing. Under this assumption, the market supply and demand and procurement relationships are: Because the housing market supply and demand is abhorrent, there are someone whose demand or supply can not be statisfied in trade process, these people are surely governed by constraints in trading process ,the constraints includes both price signal constraints and quantitative constraints. Quotas distribution depends on the exchange organization of housing market.Based on empirical research, this paper mainly used the hyperbolic form of non-equilibrium under the polymerization market conditions, which are:In this paper, we divided the residential market structure in China into ordinary residential houses, villas or high-grade residence and affordable housing. We usd annual data of these three residential type from 2000 to 2009 in China to analyze housing market supply and demand structure, and carried out empirical analysis on China housing market supply and demand structure by using the composite structures 2005-2009 annual data of 31 provinces.We got these conclusions:(1). China housing market supply and demand structure is chronically unbalanced state;(2). The reason that China house prices continue rising, is mainly pulled bythe upscale residential prices;(3). To stabilize prices, we should both increase the supply of economy applicable room and expand enjoy the scope of policy beneficiaries;(4). Using non-equilibrium to analyze the residence market supply and demand has a theoretical and practical significance.On the analysis of the total amount of housing market supply and demand in China, according to housing market supply and demand situation, we divided the time into: 2000-2004, 2005-2006 and 2007-2009 three stages for analysis. According to the results of empirical analysis, we got these conclusions:(1). During the period of 2000-2004, housing market was in oversupply unbalanced state;(2). During the period of 2005-2006, China's housing market had a rapid development, but prices problem became the focus issue of the society;(3). During the period of 2007-2009, the demand of housing market decreased and then rebounded a rising trend of V-shaped movement, this may be due to the economic crisis caused the residence trading decline. On the other side, because people did not have so much confidence on real economy, they chosed to invest in real estate and luxury residential. It made the supply and demand of residential market into non-equilibrium state;(4). Using non-equilibrium theory in the housing market research can reveal the present situation of the development of housing market, and find out the problems existing in the operation. Therefore, using the non-equilibrium framework to analyze the supply and demand of China residence market has practical significance.