An Analysis Of Factors Affecting The Import Trade Of China's Dairy

As a symbol of weighing the Chinese livestock husbandry's development,dairy industry plays a more and more obvious role in adjusting agricultural structure, increasing peasant income,raising living level, stimulating consumption and improving national physical condition. Since the reform and opening-up policy and WTO's entry,China changed agricultural policy which enhances the competitiveness of China's dairy industry not only in producing the original milk but also in dairy consume. By 2006, Dairy production has reached 33.03 million ton,which is only around 5 million ton in the early 1990s;The dairy consumption has an average annual growth of 14.6%.But dairy industry stay in a very low place in agricultural development.With the change of demand and Supply, the tariff on dairy products of china was further reduced and the export subsidies of dairy has eliminated after the accession of WTO,our country has been a Net importer from the middle 1990s,and China's dairy import has reached to the first in the world's top 10 dairy import countrys in 2003.It's evident that sharp increase of import volume would domesticly impact dairy manufactures and production of raw milk. Facing an enormous trade deficit, It's great significance to give some advice that can accelerate dairy development healthly By analyzing the characteristics of China's dairy trade and the factors of affecting the dairy import.In this dissertation, the author simulate and analyzde the Import and export trade features after introduce dairy development status,then the analysis was based on theoretical and empirical method to demonstrate the factors who affect dairy import.The main contents include the following aspects:Firstly,the auther analyzed the development status and the gap with other countries of china's dairy from three part ,such as original milk processing and dairy manufacturing and consuming.Found that althought china's dairy industry has a great progress,the datas shows It's really a considerable gap with other countries in the amount of cow in hand, milk production and consumption of liquid milk.Secondly, the auther analyzed the characteristics of China's dairy trade throught a lot of Charts,then had a simple intication on the international competitiveness of the dairy. The result showed the dairy import trade of china has different feature among source country,destination and type of dairy ,and the international competitiveness of dairy is so poor.Finally,the author simulated the supply of original milk throught Cobb-Douglas production function ,thought the amount of cow in hand and yield level of Cows are direct factors who affect milk supply.Then,we make an empirical analysis by multiple regression model after theoretical study,the result shows that price and policy had a biggest influence on dairy import. At last,based on analysis results,the author had given some advice that can accelerate dairy industry development healthly from production,trade,market and government.