The Influence Of Dairy Safety Incidents On Chinese Dairy Import

As people are increasingly demanding high quality food, food safety has become an issue of common concern to the public. Dairy products, which is an important agricultural product for enhancing people’s health, has always been considered as the most perfect food. Since our country implemented the reform and opening-up policy and successfully entered the WTO, the government has adjusted agricultural policy and made great progress in the production and consumption of the dairy products. In2007, the total output of original milk had reached36.33million tons, which is seven times more than that in the early1990s, and the average annual growth rate had reached13.7%. The dairy consumption has an average annual growth of10%. However, China’s food safety incidents on dairy industry occurs frequently and has an bad effect on the development of the domestic dairy industry and the consumer’s confidence in domestic dairy products. Our country has been a net importer of dairy products since the middle1990s, but the growth of the trade deficit remained at a relatively stable level. After dairy safety incidents happened, our dairy imports grows rapidly in a short time. From2007to2013, the trade deficit has increased from500million dollars to5.1billion dollars.This paper started from the frequent dairy safety incidents of domestic dairy industry. After the systematic analysis of the characteristics of China’s dairy imports, the author tried to explain the mechanism of import trade by evolutionary game theory and demonstrate the factors which affected dairy import based on theoretical and empirical method. The main contents include: Firstly, the author analyzed the characteristics of China’s imports of dairy products after frequently dairy safety incidents through lots of charts. It found that under the catalysis of safety incidents, the dairy import volume increased dramatically. Secondly, through analyzing the impacts of dairy safety incidents on the consumption of dairy products and milk production of our country, the author used the evolutionary game theory to show the mechanism of import trade with the catalysis of safety incidents. Finally, by establishing the model of the empirical analysis, the author found that the dairy consumption, production and dairy safety incidents had great effects on dairy import. At last, the author came up with some suggestions to promote the healthy development of our dairy industry.