| Refined oil is the foundational industry of national economy and has direct influences for the process of our country' industrialization .Nowadays our country' crude oil fleet has some disadvantages such as lack of scale, structure imbalance and in competitiveness of the fleet and our country' imported crude oil waterway transportation and refined oil have the dynamic relationships. Therefore, these shortcomings of our oil transportation fleet disturb the healthy development of the petrochemical industry. It is necessary that our country should appropriately solve the problems existed in the crude oil waterway transportation if our country want to change from a big petrochemical country to a powerful petrochemical country. In addition, it has great strategic implications for the national economic safety.Based on the above qualitative study, this paper analyzes the dynamic relationships between our country's imported crude oil waterway transportation and refined oil. Elasticity coefficient theory shows that our country' imported crude oil waterway transportation and petrochemical industry has the same orientation in the long run. Cointegration analysis further discloses the long-term equilibrium relationships namely the long-term elasticity of imported crude oil waterway transportation to refined oi is 1.56. The VEC model describes the short-term adjustment relations namely it give the -0.015 adjustment coefficient to pull them to equilibrium when they are depart from the equilibrium. Impulse Response analysis shows that if give a positive impact to the refined oi, the instant influence to imported crude oil waterway transportation is zero, but the in the long run it has a positive influence; Variance decomposition illustrates that the contribution rate of refined oi to imported crude oil waterway transportation is 3%. Meanwhile, it forecasts the coming five years oil throughput of scaled ports in China satisfactorily and the throughput of scaled ports in China in 2012 will reach at 76.7 million tons.At last, this paper gives some suggestions on enlarging the crude oil fleet, improving the fleet structures, increasing the competitiveness of the oil transportation company and implementing the strategy of carrying our own iron ore with Chinese ships and improving the crude oil distributions systems in order to improve the service functions of the crude oil waterway transportation and guarantee the healthy development of our country' refined oil. |
