Analysis Of The Crude Oil Price Trends, Forecasts And China's Oil Demand

The energy issue is always one of the most important issues in the world, and the analysis and forecast of the energy price and demand are of great concern in both theoretical and practical field. The paper focuses on the forecast of the price trend of the crude oil and the analysis on China's crude oil demand. In this paper, the author first conclude the current status of the international and domestic crude oil market, then forecast the price trend of the crude oil through Probit model and using Cointegration technique for the analysis on China's crude oil demand.In the process of the forecast of the price trend of the crude oil, the author first use the Tran-period equilibrium model for the theoretical analysis of exhaustible resources, then analyze the crude oil price using panel data through the multiple regression model, finally analyze the trend of the crude oil price through Probit model.In the process of the analysis of on China's crude oil demand, the author first shows how to select the explanatory variables and the statistical description of these variables, then analyze the long-term stable relationship between the crude oil demand and it's explanatory variables, then get the elasticity of the crude oil demand to GDP, the crude oil price and the other explanatory variables, at last simulate the China's crude oil demand in the next 7 years.Besides, in this paper the author also provides some proposals on China's oil policy base on the current international and domestic market and the quantitative analysis results. At last, the author shows the strong point and weakness of this paper, and points out some important issue for further study.