Study On Decision In The Face Of Risk About Small And Medium Realty Enterprise Project Development

Realty project management is an activity which full of complexity and risk,with a long period,intensive regionalism and more uncertain factors,so it always presents a great deal of hazard all along the line.for the moment,a suit of comprehensive systematic theory and method about realty project management risk analysis have not yet emerged in our country, the risk consciousness of administrative agency and business circles is relatively frailty. Therefore the risk within realty project management must be awared sufficiently.Inheritance ability must be estimated based on the strength of realty enterprises,so as to assurance and precaution risk maximally.The paper operate elementary theory of Bayesian decision theory,select representative small and medium realty enterprises as a subject investigated of example case,above the investigative foundation of the development project,combine internal and extemal environment with the enterprise's specific character,made use of risk identification,risk assessment and other methods,risk and fountainhead of realty exploitation items were analyzed from the stage of investment decision,land perception,item construction and rend of sale supervision,carried out estimation and evaluation to important risk,Bayesian decision theory was used for quantification analyses at realty project,scientific risk management and decision measures were brought forward according to analytical result in the end,it has a certain of reference values to realty project risk management.The purpose of the paper is to proceeding risk analysis and domination in each phase of realty project about the small and medium realty enterprises during the development process, in order to obtain the effect of optimation of benefit and efficiency and decrease the risk at the same time.