| With the capital markets continue to deepen the development, along with economic and financial globalization, the money supply as the intermediate target of monetary policy has become increasingly unsuited to the needs of economic development,"interest rate fine-tuning" of the superiority but in practice more and more countries will be reflected. Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) to become fully implement, marks the formation of the prototype of China’s benchmark interest rate, which is the intermediate target of monetary policy in China from quantity to create the conditions for the shift to price-based, which means that China’s central bank financial macro-control measures will be increasingly apparent that more accurate and effective, for which the interest rate fine-tune the effectiveness of China’s macroeconomic regulation and control. The interest rate is connected to the mediating variables of the monetary factors and real economic factors, is an important lever to regulate economic activity. In order to give full play to economic leverage role of interest rates, must be as reasonable as possible to determine the interest rate. Determinants of interest rates as the price of funds, by and influencing factors is very large, and very complex. In other words, the level of interest rates and the adjustment is ultimately determined by the combined effects of the various complex factors. Collected in recent years by China’s central bank interest rate adjustment, the CPI index, the U.S. reserve ratio of GDP, the average profit margin, the discount rate and other data, most of the factors that affect the interest rate changes were analyzed by multiple regression analysis to elect important factor, then the decision table by rough set theory, decision table reduction, to get the decision-making. Bayesian minimum risk theory to assess the decision-making, and then come to the influencing factors taken the state to which the interest rate adjustment. |
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