Application And Limitations Analysis Study Of Bayes Decision Theory On Risk Decision-making For Real Estate Development Project

In the last decade, real estate has grown rapidly in China. Being an industry of forerunner and foundation of subject economy system in our country, it has been a dominant status. During the past long time, real estate has been a condition of benign development. However, in the recent years, it has been a phenomenon of investment increasing too rapidly, building price versus incoming being too high, and vacant building ratio rising. On the other hand, real estate itself is an industry of investment being high, cycle being long, and the industry and department involved being too many. Hence, for the medium or small real estate corporations growing under a loose condition, scientific and exact decision-making for the items, especially cognition, control and elusion of the risk during decision-making, is more important.In this paper, by means of the analysis of theory relating to practical case, after reading much paper internal and overseas on real estate items risk decision-making, based on the author working and the real estate itself, analyze the actuality of real estate and its development trend, analyze the risk the medium or small real estate corporations are confronted with, present the concept of analyzing and measuring risk by using many risk decision-making methods, introduce especially the model which instructs risk decision-making using Bayes theory in detail, and in the end, analyze by the numbers and conclude the real situation of project selection during item risk decision-making in ShiYan, HuBei province, so as to give illumination and reference to the medium or small real estate corporations.