Research On The Tourist Environmental Bearing Capacity Based On System Dynamics

As people's awareness of environment protection enhancing and the sustainable development strategy being implemented popularly,how to promote the sustainable development of the tourism is an important topic which concerned by the tourism academics now.Tourist Environmental Bearing Capacity(TEBC)is the intermediate link between tourist environment system and tourist economy.It has become an important indicator for judging whether the tourism developing sustainable or not. Scientifically grasping the current situation and the development trend has been very important significance for the tourism's planning and management.System Dynamics(SD)is a method of computer simulation used in researching dynamical problems in society and science.It is widely used to solve dynamical problems such as economy,enterprise management,ecological balance,environment and population and so on.This paper tried to apply the SD model to grasp the current situation and the development trend of the TEBC and some progress are achieved as followings:(1)Based on the previous studies and region characteristics analysis,according to the feature of the study area,this paper decided the indictor system of TEBC,and the quantitative methods for all indictors.(2)This paper constructed the SD models of TEBC.Firstly,it analyzed the system structure and the boundary of the TEBC,and divided the TEBC system into four subsystems:the tourism economy subsystem,the environmental pollution subsystem,the tourism resource of space and the social psychology subsystem. Secondly,it analyzed the main variables and the cause-effect feedback relationship each other.Finally,constructed flow models and built the equators.(3)This paper applied the SD models to simulating the dynamic change of TEBC under the current strategies in NanLing National Forest Park from 2006 to 2020.According to the result of the current situation and the development trend of TEBC in next 15 years,we can find the problems such as the short of pollution investment,and at 2013,the overload will occur in this scenic spot,and after 2015, too little investment for the tourist facilities.To these problems,with the countermeasures simulation analyses of the model,following were referenced and is helpful:increasing the proportion of investment for dealing with environmental pollution from 0.3%to 0.5%of tourism economic income,controlling the number of the visitors,increasing the investment of the tourist facilities after 2015.