The Risk Analysis Of Integrated Circuit Project In China

Nowadays ,the world entered the informationization from the industrialization the development phase, The level of development of the information industries which represent emerging productive forces have become an important standard for deciding one country's comprehensive national strength.IC(Integrated circuit) technology is the core of information industry and high-technology, and the key technology impulsing national economy and social informationization; IC industry is the core power promoting the global economy development now, and also is a kind of industry in which there are the most rapid development and the most intense competition in the present world; The IC which applies nearly in all industrial departments is the high tech product putting many kinds of high technology together into a body.Our country has been introducing the massive joint capital, the foreign capital integrated circuit chip production line project in the last few years; this kind of chip project is containing the corresponding risk as a result of the huge investment cost. Therefore, grasping the opportunity in project investment, reducing the risk or reducing risk losses, become the important guarantee for successful investment. But because the risk originates from the thing uncertainty, therefore the risk of project investment relates to the degree of the collected information which the investment-maker grasps, regarding the project investment, although the risk is the objective existence, but some factors can be grasped and eliminated, therefore, the project investment risk analysis, the risk assessment, the venture decision, the risk guard then become an important content.First of all, the risk conception, characteristic and classification are summed up, the risk of engineering project investment and the theory of risk analysis are introduced and the function of risk evaluation is pointed out. Secondly, risk factors are analyzed specifically from the perspective of the system, the source of risk, the direct action body of risk, the influence of risk for goal and the process of project management. Thirdly, after the risk factors can be identified, the investor must make decision and take measures to circumvent risks according to it. This article is based on the formerly assessment methods which are summarized by author, points out the existed deficiency, introduces the artificial neural networks theory into the risk assessment, takes the integrated circuit investment project of LXYT as an example, has established artificial neural networks model of the project investment plan risk assessment, and has carried on the confirmation to model through the integrated circuit chip production line project example, and has obtained the satisfactory results.In the fifth chapter of this paper, the main risk factors that affect the economic appraisal of the engineering investment project are described through the form of relationship chart. Then it is proved by way of deduction of formula that the risky influence that is brought by inflation must be considered in the engineering investment project. And lie in the previous express formula of net cash flow, that is to say, the analysis model, is put forward and the process of answering is explained particularly. At the same time, how to select appropriately the probability distribution of each risk variable is analyzed. At last, a new risk measurement model that considers the investor's risk hobby is brought forward.The risk evaluation of IC investment project is a very complex system evaluation. The paper puts merely forth effort to provide a kind of thinking and frame to analyze and solve this kind of problem and provides reference for the decision-maker to make his decision more reasonable and scientific.