| The cyclical fluctuation of economy is an objective phenomenon. Such will lead in the cyclical financial situation of enterprises. How to adapt to cyclical fluctuations of enterprise financial situation arising from the cyclical fluctuations of economic, how to properly reflect the current financial situation of the enterprise whether it is normal or not, and how to find the information in a timely manner when the financial position of enterprises is in the event of a major turning point is what we need to resolve the key issues. Judging from the current international and domestic situation, the intensity of competition in the market is increasing, especially after China has joined in the WTO, more foreign enterprises have participated in the domestic competition, and the financial early warning system will become an effective way that enterprises enhance their abilities of anti risks and resilience using tools of financial management.It is in the above context, this paper attempts to draw on the experience of the early warning methods of macro-economy to build the financial early warning system of enterprise. It will analyze the whole process of the cyclical fluctuations of the financial situation from the point of view of the cyclical financial fluctuation, judge the financial situation of enterprises and do early warning, which will help managers timely adjust the financial strategy in the financial situation of cyclical turning point and meet the information needs of the individual enterprise financial information.First, the paper introduces the concepts of financial cycle and financial cycle forecasting, based on this analyzes the theoretical boom of financial early warning and focused on the inspiring of economic early warning to financial cycle forecasting. Second, the paper builds the index system of financial cycle early warning, and uses cluster anal-ysis and the time difference related to classify the key indexes of the early warning, and then divided all the key indexes of financial cycle early warning into first, the same categories, of indexes and lagging indexes. Again, in accordance with the principle of Diffusion Index and Composite Index, the paper establishes Diffusion Index and Composite Index of enterprise, and draws the figures of the fluctuations of enterprise's financial situation and the figures of an early warning signal to indirectly observe the entire process of cyclical fluctuations and the extent of the fluctuations. Finally, empirical studies show that the early warning system is scientific and feasible. In the concluding part of the contents, the paper also points out the inadequacy of the existing and future direction of further study. |
