Research And Application On The Chinese Coal Consumption Forecast Model

Energy is an important material foundation for the survival of human growth, social prosperity and progress, national economic development and the improvement of people's living standards. Better energy consumption forecast conducive to the stable and rapid economic development and to accelerate the healthy development of the energy sector and to facilitate the development of a sound energy planning, so that the accurate prediction of the energy consumption is very important and necessary. The quantity of China's coal production and consumption is one of the largest countries in the world, and China's coal consumption accounts for about 70 percent of the first energy consumption, so how to forecast of coal consumption better has become an important issue of sustainable development in the national economy.Firstly, this paper analyzes the popular models and methods of the coal consumption forecast, and researches the status quo in the field. Secondly, this paper profoundly expounds China's current coal supply and demand situation, and then does deep analysis on selected models and methods of forecasting principle. This paper uses neural network model, grey prediction model, ARMA model, the sector analysis model to predict coal consumption in 2007-2012. Finally, it applies these models to the actual system to accomplish the Agent-based prototype of China's coal consumption forecast system.Based on the study of China's coal consumption forecast model and Agent-based system, may provide a new reference to Chinese energy policy formulation.Accordingly, the coal policy formulation becomes more scientific and effective.