China's Coal Consumption Demand Mutation Identification Analysis And Prediction

As China proposes "energy revolution", the development of clean energy and renewable energy has been the focus of social discussion. The view that "energy revolution is to make revolution on coal" becomes the discussion topic for various experts in no time. In the report of the 22nd World Energy Congress held in 2013, it clearly points out:"By 2050, fossil energy will still be the basis of the world energy structure, and coal will still play an important role for a long time." China has been the largest coal producer, consumer and importer in the world for a long time, so China still take coal as the main energy source in a short period of time. Although coal consumption brings many environmental problems like low utilization rate& serious pollution, it has played a vital role in China's continuous and rapid economic growth. It is an important drive and support of economic development in China. Therefore, in a short period of time, it will not change that coal still occupy the dominant position in China's energy sector. China, like most of the countries in the world, upgrades the transformation of energy development methods, the optimization of energy structure as the main energy strategy at the present stage. Coal consumption disruption is affected by various macro policies and factors. Therefore, the identification and analysis of China's coal consumption disruption has not only theoretical significance, but also great realistic significance on China's macro control and energy policy-making.This paper mainly adopts the dynamic real-time analysis function on change-point problem in the PPM model, introduces the concept of commodity consumption change tolerance threshold, and redefines the definition of the commodity consumption disruption. Thus, the change-point dynamic analysis function of PPM model was adopted. Identification was conducted on coal consumption demand disruption from 1981-2013 in China, and theoretical analysis was conducted on important factors that influence the disruption. The study shows that from 1981 to 2013, China's coal consumption demand witnessed a total of six significant disruptions. Short-term sharp fluctuations in coal prices and industrial consumption are the main factors of coal consumption demand disruption. Factors like social economic development, macro policy implementation, changes of supply and demand are the foundation of coal consumption demand disruption. Single variable forecast ETS and ARIMA models were adopted to analyze and forecast China's coal production and consumption. The results show that along with the optimization of energy structure in China, the "zero growth" of coal consumption is ahead of coal production. Coal consumption in 2020 is 3.975 billion tons, while coal production is 4.855 billion tons.