Research And Application On The Chinese Oil Consumption Forecast Model

Energy is the lifeblood of the economy, relations with the development of the national economy and improving the people's living conditions. Energy consumption is forecast to the stable and rapid economic development, to speed up the healthy development of the energy industry, and conducive to the formulation of a sound energy planning, so energy consumption accurate forecasts that is very necessary. China is the world's oil producing and consuming nations. In recent years, along with the rapid economic growth, domestic oil consumption increased substantially, and the dependence on oil imports every year better. How to better predict oil consumption, which has become an important sustainable development issues on the national economy.This paper analyzes the current world oil consumption forecast for the model and method, and this research in the field of the status quo; Second, China's current oil supply and demand situation have made more profound exposition; then the preferred method of prediction model and the principle of in-depth analysis, and against the principle developed procedures to achieve functional. At the same time applying neural network prediction, and the GM (1,1) and a linear regression model of portfolio models based on 1999-2004 data, 2005-2010 predicted the situation and compare the application of both the advantages and disadvantages. Finally prediction model is used to predict the actual system, in order to achieve better use of goal.Based on the forecast model and the application of their research on China's oil consumption forecast, China will strive to energy forecast and early-warning system in oil consumption forecast subsystem modules provide certain value.