Study On The Coordinative Development Between Agricultural Population Transfer And Urban Construction Land Increase In Jiangxi Province

With the advancement of new urbanization and the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy,the agricultural population will continue to be promoted and resettled in the future.As the demand for housing,employment and social services increases,the supply and demand for various types of construction land in the city will also increase.However,under the double constraint that the strict red line of cultivated land must be adhered to and the “red light” of resources and environment begins to light up,how to reasonably allocate the limited urban construction land and carry a continuously increasing urban population,which are worthy of further discussion.Recognizing the extent of the impact of agricultural population transfer on urban construction land increase and the overall coupling situation of the two,and identifying the spatial variation characteristics between agricultural population transfer and urban construction land increase,which will be of great significance to promote the coordinated development between agricultural population transfer and urban construction land,further promote new urbanization and effectively implement the rural revitalization strategy.This paper takes Jiangxi Province as the research object,and uses the relevant statistical data and related image data of 11 prefecture-level cities in Jiangxi Province from 2006 to 2016,to study the coordinated development between agricultural population transfer and urban construction land increase.Firstly,this paper uses PVAR panel estimation and multiple linear regression analysis to analyze the correlation between agricultural population transfer and urban construction land increase.Secondly,using fixed effect and random effect model,the paper studied the impact of agricultural population transfer on urban total construction land increase and the increase of different types of urban construction land;finally,using the gravity model and Arc GIS spatial analysis method,it revealed the spatial coupling situation between agricultural population transfer and urban construction land increase in Jiangxi Province,and using the dispersion coefficient method,it explored the spatial coordination characteristics between agricultural population transfer and urban construction land increase.Based on the aboveanalysis,the study draws the following conclusions?(1)They are Mutual causalities between agricultural population transfer and the increase of urban total construction land and residential land.There is a one-way causal relationship between agricultural population transfer and the increase of industrial-commercial land,traffic-green-square land and public facilities-service land.The increase of industrial-commercial land,traffic-green-square land are not the Granger cause of agricultural population transfer.The transfer of agricultural population is not the Granger reason for the increase in public facilities-service land.In other words,the large-scale transfer of agricultural population can predict the increase in urban total construction land,residential land,industrial-commercial land,and traffic-green-space land.However,the increase of industrial-commercial land,traffic-green-square land cannot significantly predict the transfer of agricultural population.There is a certain correlation between agricultural population transfer and urban total construction land increase.(2)Agricultural population transfer positively affects the total urban construction land increase at the level of 1%,with an impact coefficient of 0.260,but it is smaller than the economic development level of 0.619.The agricultural population transfer positively affects the increase of industrial-commercial land,residential land and traffic-green-square land at the significant levels of 10%,1% and 5%.The impact of the industrial-commercial land affected is greatest,the second is residential land,and the smallest is traffic-green-square land.,and the impact coefficient is respectively 0.167,0.155 and 0.135,but the impact of agricultural population transfer on the increase of public facilities-service land is not significant.The impact of different control variables on urban construction land expansion is different.(3)There are regional differences in the impact of agricultural population transfer on urban construction land increase in different regions.The volume of agricultural population transfer and urban total construction land increase in Nanchang,Zhangzhou and Shangrao are all at a high level in 11 prefecture-level cities,the following is Fuzhou,Ji'an and Yingtan,and the level of agricultural population transfer is lowest in Jiujiang and Jingdezhen.In Pingxiang,the annual increase of different types of construction land are the least.Among the different types of construction land,the annual increase ofresidential land is the largest,the following is industrial-commercial land and traffic-green-square land,and the average annual increase of public facilities land is the least.Among them,the annual increase of residential land in Nanchang is the largest,Yingtan is the least.The annual increase of industrial-commercial land,traffic-green-square land and public facilities land is the largest in Zhangzhou.The average annual growth of industrial-commercial land is the least in Ji'an.The annual increase of industrial-commercial land is the least in Ji'an.The annual increase of traffic-green-square land is the least in Pingxiang.The average annual growth of public facilities is the least in Nanchang and Fuzhou.(4)From 2006 to 2016,the overall coupling situation between agricultural population transfer and urban construction land increase in Jiangxi Province showed a phase change with weakening,strengthening and weakening again,and their centre of gravity moves gradually toward the same direction,and the moving trajectories of their centre of around the traffic trunk shift from northeast to southwest,from Nanchang to Ji'an and Ganzhou in central and southern of Jiangxi.The agglomeration degree of the gravity of agricultural population transfer is less than that of the gravity of urban construction land increase.In some years,the gravity of urban construction land increase lags behind and follows closely the gravity of agricultural population transfer.It may indicate that the increase of urban construction land is not the determining power of agricultural population transfer.The government should strengthen the guidance of agricultural population transfer.However,they don't coincide with each other in terms of quantity and spatial allocation structure,between agricultural population transfer and increase of construction land.With increase of urban total construction land,it keeps coordinated comparatively,the most serious imbalance is industrial-commercial land,the second are traffic-green-square land and public facilities land,the most mild imbalance is residential land and their levels of imbalance are decreasing in turn from north of Jiangxi to south of Jiangxi.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper proposes some policy recommendations on how to promote the coordinated development between agricultural population transfer and urban construction land increase:(1)The impact coefficient ofagricultural population transfer on different types of construction land is different,in the process of formulating urban planning and land use planning,the number of agricultural transfer population should be reasonably predicted during the planning period,and the total amount of new construction land should be allocated according to the impact coefficient of various construction land increases.(2)The limited resources make it impossible for new construction land to fully meet the land demand for urban development.The government should accelerate the revitalization of urban stock land,and bid farewell to the past large-scale demolition and construction,effectively curb the waste of land resources,and promote the transformation of urban construction to a connotative development model focusing on quality and vitality.(3)The resource endowment conditions vary from region to region.In the process of allocation of construction land indicators,land use demand and spatial expansion direction should be predicted separately,and corresponding land use policies should be formulated.At the same time,local governments should strengthen employment skills training to peasant,speeding up industrial restructuring,and encourage agricultural transfer populations to select industries that are suitable for their own industries and transferred cities according to their skills,knowledge,and connections.(4)It is necessary to speed up the reform of the household registration system to protect residential housing,which is to promote the transfer of agricultural population.it is also necessary to regulate real estate to increase land use costs,and then control urban construction land use.