| In the regional economic development process, the economic development needs transportation system support growingly. Reasonable arrangements for the transport structure have a positive role on saving transportation costs and improving transport efficiency. Reasonable transport structure plays a crucial role and provides the basis for regional securityn on the regional economic development.With the development of transport integration, it requires various modes of transport achieving unified planning, management, organization, and deployment. The ways of optimizing transport systems approach are many, including improving the transport policy, transport management and transport planning. Along with the ever-changing demand for transportation, limited transport resources are often unable to completely meet the rapid economic development. Therefore, this is only through collocating transport structure in reason to allocate redundant transport demand to the replacement mode of transport which have a surplus of transport capacity. From this study we can see that pipeline transport has not been properly developed. Road transport and rail transport bear the relative number of petroleum and coal transport. Along with the continuous deepening of pipeline construction and the development of coal liquefaction technology, pipeline transport in the coal and oil transport will assume a more important role.The rationalization evaluation of the various modes of transport division has been a difficult issue on transportation economics. The study is also less. This issue relates to the five modes of transport and what are the standards of division of the five modes of transport. How to evaluate the rationalization division of transport modes are the keys of the articles.This paper is divided into six chapters aggregately, and the chapters are as follows.Chapter1, Introduction. This paper introduced the research background, the purpose and significance and analyse the study actuality at home and abroad. This paper put forward the main contents and technical route. Chapter2, The paper has analysed the economic characteristics of the five modes of transport. From the view of regional cooperation, the paper studies the evaluation methodologies to rationalize the transport division. It has done the Research on the AHP, grey correlation evaluation, DEA, dynamic and comprehensive evaluation method, based on wavelet network of multi-attribute evaluation method, and done this comparison of thesel methods.According to analyzing the evaluation characteristics of transport rationalization division, paper select the dynamic comprehensive evaluation method.Chapter3, Paper pointed out the need to evaluation the various modes of transport rationalization division, so we must choose the appropriate evaluation indicators. Because there are no indicators using for reference, it needs to demonstrate the selected indicators. This paper used the system dynamics theory and methods, demonstrating the effectiveness of selected indicators.It established five modes of transport system respectively, and applied VENSIM software to simulate the system dynamics models through using the historical data to ensure that the process of the effectiveness of selected indicators. This chapter is part of the contents of key points and it can be set up to pave the way done for the evaluation system.Chapter4, The article gets the evaluation index basing on researchs of system dynamics simulation. This chapter established evaluation system relying on studying dynamic and comprehensive evaluation method. This chapter establish separate subsystems index for the various modes of transport respectively relying on the entire transport system indicator system. It evaluates modes of transport division and basing on the integrated sub-systems index system. This paper is also a part of an innovation.After comprehensive study of the dynamic evaluation, the chapter selected dynamic multi-attribute comprehensive evaluation method, which is more suited to the comprehensive evaluation of the various modes of transport division. Basing on the theory of the original method, the original method model was improved, and established discrimination matrix used for differentiating rationalization transport. This article holds that the matrix values are analogical indicating that modes of transport division is reasonable and is well adapted to the objective environment. Conversely, if it is no, it is unreasonable. This is the core content and innovation of the article and it has done the dynamic comprehensive evaluation for modes of transport division.Chapter5, This chapter evaluated various modes of transport division in 1995-2000 and 2001-2006 time in the Northeast Economic Zone basing on regional cooperation theory, and. The results of the evaluation show that the five basic modes of transport is a reasonable division in the 1995-2000 period, pointing out that the rail and road transport bear more transportation, but sea transport and air transport has been the slow development. The five basic modes of transport is a reasonable division in 2001-2006, but it also appeared unreasonable phenomenon. Pipeline transport in decline, It did not undertake corresponding cargo.but air transport was due Development comparing with the past.Chapter6, Summary and Expectation.This chapter outlines the main elements of this paper, and the novelty, pointed out the shortcomings and further research directions.This paper uses a system dynamics model to validate the impact factors of freight and improved dynamic multi-attribute comprehensive evaluation method, and did dynamic evaluation for rationalization division of transport division. It has a certain guiding significance on the allocation of transportation resources. The research on rationalization evaluation of transport division have a positive role on the rational resource allocation, reduce transport pressure and regional trade costs, and promote regional economic development to reduce logistics costs, and satisfy the needs of the people. |
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