Study Of Supply Chain Risk Management Based On Scenario Analysis

The supply chain can be regarded as a cooperative and dynamic network which is structured cross enterprises, department and culture by the core enterprise. It has become a complex system, with many parallel flows of logistics and information in order to ensure that products are delivered with right quantities to the right place in a cost-effective manner. Due to the complexity of the supply chain, there exist great risks. The supply chain enterprises are interdependent and supposed to work in coordination. Any problem that occurred in any link would affect the entire supply chain. Supply chain risk has become a critical obstacle of supply chain management and brought tremendous harm to every corporation in supply chain. It holds back supply chain function and development. Therefore, the supply chain risk problem has become important in supply chain management and got more and more attentions.Supply chain risk management is studied in this thesis. The following are the primary work and achievements of this thesis:1. This thesis first qualitatively introduces risk concept, risk characters, risk factors, risk categories and risk drivers, and then proposes a supply chain risk management framework, including risk identification, risk assessment and risk management.2. This thesis has a study of Scenario Analysis and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process.3. This thesis proposes a supply chain risk identification and assessment model. This model identifies and assesses risk using scenario analysis and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process respectively. Finally, we get weak links in the supply chain under different scenarios.4. This thesis proposes a supply chain risk management process which has nine steps: depicting the scope and elements of supply chain, process analysis and risk identification, scenario development, structuring risk factors, questionnaire survey, giving fuzzy judgement matrix, calculating risk-weight vector, identifying weak links, developing strategies to deal with risks.5. A case based on the supply chain risk management process mentioned in the fourth point, which takes the 2010 Shanghai World Expo as its background and the supply chain of Coca-Cola Company as the study object, is studied. We get the weak links of this supply chain under different scenarios in the future and make a number of risk strategies.