Research On The Bullwhip Effect In Supply Chain Management

Firms have gradually realized that competition is the competition as part of one supply chain against other supply chains, rather than as a single firm against other individual firms since the 1980s. It brings a new problem for the supply chain management. Supply chain management has been the most important subject all over the world. The bullwhip effect takes place when the members of the supply chain try to coordinate the relation between supply and demand. In order to enhance its own competitive power, enterprise need consider the coordinated operation situation from overall aspects and maximization supply chain performance. It is identified by the phenomenon that the variability of demand is largely increasing while information is sent from the downside to the upside in the supply chain.Bullwhip effect makes the level of the storage of enterprise's production higher, and the level of service lower. Then the whole cost of supply chain will be made too high. All these will make the enterprises in supply chain less competitive. At last, every member in the supply chain will sustain losses. Therefore, reducing the bad influence of bullwhip effect is a new measure to improve the efficiency of supply chain management and gain preponderance in market competition. It will bring the supply chain more acumen, reduce the cost of the supply chain, and shorten the time of supply and so on.How to solve the bullwhip effect in the supply chain has always been a difficult problem in the supply chain management. This thesis follows the principle of combining theory with reality, macroeconomic with microeconomic, qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, statistical analysis with model analysis to research the bullwhip effect systematically. Firstly, research the bullwhip effect how to take place, and then analyze harm for enterprise's supply chain, on the basis of domestic and foreign scholars' research, summarize primary factors that bring about bullwhip effect and put forward countermeasure to weaken the bullwhip effect. This thesis construct two-level supply chain model which is composed by retailer and producer and apply moving average demanding forecasting method and exponential smoothing forecasting method to analyze the bullwhip effect from the quota angle. Through contrasting of information sharing and non-information sharing and describing the status of the bullwhip effect with graph, it come to the conclusion that information sharing can weaken the bullwhip effect. From the quota point, price fluctuations have the effect on supply chain management. Finally apply the theory to shipping enterprise, analyze reasons that bring about bullwhip effect in the shipping market and put forward some measures. Only the reduction of the bullwhip effect can promote supply chain coordinated and performance maximization.Not only consult widely the domestic and foreign related technical literature, but also conduct investigation on shipping company and extensively collect and collate relevant data and material. Research angle, technique and viewpoints can provide beneficial exploration for the implementation of the supply chain management in our country enterprise.