A Study On Risk Analysis Method Of Engineering Project's Investment Based On Entropy Coefficient

This dissertation is supported by the item of"Research on Control of Investment and Optimal Model of Risk Return in Whole Process of Construction Project"----natural science research of Ministry of Hebei Province. Risk of engineering project's investment exists objectively. Generally speaking, construction project possesses characteristics such as big investment, long construction period, complicated public relations and quite a few uncontrollable factors. Potential risk existed during the course of contracting will bring potential loss to parties involved especially the owner. Uncertain factors existed in the process of construction have greater risk than production of common goods, so it is very important to carry out risk management. The risk analysis is key of risk management. The text applies the entropy coefficient to the risk analysis of engineering project's investment.The text aims at making some discussions to the application study in the risk analysis of engineering project's investment with assess of entropy coefficient, offering the method to adopt a correct attitude towards project risk to administrative staff of the project, hoping to guide practice with it. This article has analyzed the risk concept and the characteristic, as well as the characteristic of the engineering project risk, list the project risk sequencing as the risk analysis independent part, analysises comparatively the common method of risk analysis, which is based on the two aspects of entire life cycle and the qualitative/quantities to draw the conclusion: First, in the former risk analysis methods neglects risk sequencing. It is few methods uses in risk sequencing. Second, over static studying qualitatively in the risk is assessed on the past construction work, partial to subjectively in the choosing of the weight, but there are numerous random factors in reality, result and reality that were assessed to make often have heavy disparity. For remedy in these two respects assess influence of result to project risk, have introduced the entropy coefficient, have discussed the entropy coefficient application study in the project risk sequencing, analytical fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of entropy coefficient especially, and through charge example prove superiority and wide application prospect of this method.