Predictive Research On Port Logistics Between The Two Sides Of Taiwan Strait

The fast-developing logistics industry has an important impact on global economy. As an important link in the comprehensive transportation chain, the port rapidly develops into port logistics. The port is presently the main carrier of the economic and trade contacts between both sides of Taiwan strait, therefore developing port logistics between the them has become an important means of integrating their economy and facilitating the establishment of the Cross-strait Economic Zone. The closer economic and trade ties between the two sides of Taiwan Straight and the launch of the Economic Zone on the West Coast of the Taiwan Strait have endowed the ports of Fujian comprehensive advantages to develop port logistics with Taiwan. A good prediction of the port logistics between Fujian and Taiwan has realistic significance and research value in guiding the sound development of the port logistics between the two sides.This paper combines port economy theory, logistics theory and system methodology organically. The author takes Fuzhou Harbour, Xiamen Harbour and Gaoxiong Harbour as subjects of study and conducts the study according to the general steps of port logistics prediction. The prediction method system is first settled through thorough pre-study work. Quantitative models are established in light of mathematic modeling theory for the prediction of the logistics amount and structure of the three habours inquestion. The author elaborates on the reasonableness of the future port logistic scale, structure and direction. The author also deals with the impact that may be exerted on the port logistics of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait by the possible cross-strait direct navigation and works out a quantitative value for this impact objectively in virtue of qualitative method, thus scientificly revises the result of quantitative prediction. Finally, judging by the developmental trend of the port logistics of the two sides of Taiwan Strait, the author proposes the strategic emphasis and strategic measures of developing port logistics with Taiwan for Fuzhou harbour and Xiamen harbour.