Qira County Land Utilization System Dynamic Model Study

Since the 1980s, Global Change Science as a study of global environmental change targeted at the emerging science of the gradual formation; World scientists generally believed that the Land use and land cover change (LUCC) is a global change an important component part. In the current domestic and international research in this area focus on the representation of some regions, through remote sensing, field observation and survey data to the model calculation and analysis, LUCC process-driven mechanism and environmental effects.To regional land use and land cover change the course of modern mechanism driving force in response to environmental and quantitative research is as current land use and cover new research directions.Qira oasis at the southern edge of Xinjiang Tarim River Valley oasis southern border region is the most frequent human activities. The most intense, one of the unique social-economic-natural assemblage of ecosystems and cultural characteristics. The area of land use structure in response to environmental changes and quantitative research is beneficial to the vast drought-depth understanding of the system, drought reveals the land use change in the driving force, land use change on ecosystem structure and function of mechanisms, and the control mechanisms for people to the core scientific issues. In theory, with the current international forefront of scientific research LUCC consistent, important scientific value.System Dynamics is a system based on the theory Feedback Theory and learn the essence of information theory, and with the aid of computer modeling techniques. The advantage of the method is able to quantify the analysis of complex system structure and function of the inherent relationship can quantitatively analyze characteristics of the areas of high-order nonlinear problems, suitable for the long-term objective of the dynamic trend.It is precisely because of land-use study involving the population, environment, socio-economic, and technical, policy and many other aspects, factor is a large, complex feedback system, a large number of overlapping mixed data, prioritizing mutual implied. And with the constant time changes and the corresponding changes. Therefore, the application of System Dynamics system for the overall analysis, system analysis of all elements of feedback causal relationship, integrated simulation, analysis, the necessary adjustment is feasible. Moreover, due to a comprehensive system dynamics simulation analysis system factors and changes in decision-making under different simulated the long-term dynamics. Therefore, the right strategy for long-cyclical measures for effective analysis and the corresponding basis. This shows that the application of System Dynamics Land Use and Cover Change quantitative analysis process has obvious advantages.The previous person to the southern region of Xinjiang Tarim Basin research results and the field investigation based on first-hand information, To mountain- oasis-desert ecosystem and human activities as one of the Qira River as the object of study. The artificial and natural factors driving under the land use of environmental indicators in response to the evaluation system explore the quantitative research methods; analysis of statistics from 1949 to 2000 to be the caliber 39 with the socio-economic conditions of the indices, and in water and soil measurements obtained on land, water environment Series indicators; Through large-scale statistical software Personal the Principal Component Analysis module to process data, He ultimately chose a 15 statistical indicators and measurement 10, the composite index, and the land of Qira Oasis dynamic trend analysis. To reveal the quantitative changes in the cultivated area and its driving factors PCA, using multivariate statistical analysis methods to study the changes and their farmland factor driving the quantitative relationship between.The use of field investigation and local statistical data, the system dynamics theory and methods, subsystem based on socio-economic population, the economy (GDP), the market (food self-sufficiency rate). Land policies and advances in technology (grain yield) five factors in the supply and demand balance for driving under the land use system, thereby adjusting the structure of land use systems thinking, and given the exchange closed two states, construction of Qira land use SD theoretical framework model.