The Risk Distribution Study In The Life-Cycle Of The Engineering Project

the main content of the dissertation is "risk problem for the engineering project in the whole process of life cycle", adopting expert's questionnaire survey, Probability Theory and the Central Limit Theorem of Probability, normal distribution, Concentrated Numeric Statistic Method etc, it detailed carry on a research to the risks from Risk Identification, Risk Evaluation and Risk Disposal, and apply the conclusion of research in the ZHAOGU project and provided an actual data for examination conclusion.The thesis commence in Risk Identification, it divided risks into 6 first class risks and 24 second class risks, according to the progress of the engineering project, the life cycle of the engineering project is divided into five stages(launch stage, design stage, bids and contract stage, construction stage and the ending stage),and generally introduce the content of work in the each stage, which have a whole understanding to the risk in the process of life cycle for the engineering project from the category and the quantity. The method of data collections is expert's questionnaire survey, which is designed by VC, the method of data processing is Concentrated Numeric Statistic Method. During the analysis, Considering of the random of the risks and the Central Limit Theorem of Probability, the thesis do the assumption that the risk in the life cycle for engineering project matched the normal distribute, and established risk function model, according to the characters of the normal distribution function, the thesis solutes the ratings of the risks, and get the correspond normal distributes curve and the testing curve.In the process of risk disposal, the thesis firstly introduce the risk management priority factor and establish the risk disposal function model, and output the table of the risk strategy disposal method, by the analysis of the combination of the data about the value of risks and the risk management priority factor, in the meantime, It get the diagram of the risk, which do a detailed description for the risk of engineering project.